As we get closer to the fateful day when Topps will take over the licensed production of NFL and NBA sports cards, we have looked for clues of how they will handle these products.
Shop for 2023 Topps Composite Football boxes on eBay
Now that we have the first comprehensive traditional Topps football product in almost a decade, we understand where things are going much better. The conventional lineup of Topps does not include equivalents for all the Panini releases. Meanwhile, some similar ones do not have the same cache.
That is particularly true for the high-end products. Therefore, we expected some changes and adjustments to their releases. The 2023 Topps Composite Football release, set to drop on August 30th, gives us the biggest clue about the annual Topps lineup.
Not only does it base itself on the Panini Chronicles release, but because of its very nature, it will also include cards from many other releases. Therefore, this release can be seen as a turning point for Topps. For more, read our full 2023 Topps Composite Football review.
Of course, this product has no history—not really. However, it is based heavily on the concept of Panini Chronicles and takes its legacy and inspiration from there.
The Panini product is known for having many cards from different releases. In addition, the checklist is almost exclusively made up of big stars and rookies. The combination of variety and big names has always made Chronicles a fun rip. But the problem is that the cards are usually worth almost nothing.
The Topps Composite release will similarly include cards from various releases. We are told it will consist of: “Topps Chrome, Chrome Black, Resurgence, Finest, Cosmic Chrome, Midnight, Allen & Ginter, Archives, Heritage, and more!” Therefore, we can expect cards from all these releases, and indeed, as the Topps lineup expands, we will see others.
But that leaves many questions unanswered about the 2023 Topps Composite Football release. Some will be answered here and when the release drops, but others will only be known in the future, especially when the first licensed version drops.
Shop for 2023 Topps Composite Football boxes on eBay
I wasn’t surprised that Topps was releasing a Chronicles equivalent product. But the timing of this release for the 2023 season was a bit strange. First, the 2023 season is over, and we are now pretty close to the run-in towards the 2024 NFL season. Second, Topps does not yet have an NFL license.
But here we are. Topps has set a release date for 2023 Topps Composite Football, which is August 16, 2024. You can preorder these boxes, so we assume the date will be upheld.
Most likely (at least we hope), future releases of this product will be more timely and released at some point during the season. Chronicles was always pretty late in the game and usually released after the season ended. But Topps generally is better about these things.
Next year, we will watch the date closely to see how Topps envisions it in their schedule. Hopefully, the late date is just a result of the product’s newness and will not be a feature. Otherwise, the popularity of this release could take a hit before it even hits the ground.
Shop for 2023 Topps Composite Football boxes on eBay
This is a new release, and we don’t know the full lineup of formats yet. However, if it is based on Chronicles, we expect it to eventually become a primarily retail release like its equivalent. You generally pick this up at Walmart rather than at your local card store.
But we haven’t had the details about any format, except the hobby box. Nonetheless, we are sure they are coming since retail odds are on the Topps website. So, we will await any developments on this front.
Shop for 2023 Topps Composite Football boxes on eBay
While we don’t have the specs yet, the Topps website shows that the following formats will drop eventually (probably about a month after the hobby boxes):
Getting on the ground floor of a new release can be exciting. Especially one that appears to be part of the cornerstone of Topps strategy for football (and probably basketball) cards. That gives you the bragging rights of “I have been collecting this since day one” and all that.
Perhaps the most significant selling point is that Topps has come out swinging with three autos per box. That is one of the main reasons this product sold out quickly off the company website despite the high price tag.
Shop for 2023 Topps Composite Football boxes on eBay
There is no getting around it. Paying $360 for an unlicensed product from an unproven brand seems like highway robbery. But if you think that is not good, the odds for the retail products suggest that these expensive boxes are FAR more worthwhile than taking your chances with the retail formats.
Topps was selling these at $250. The upping of the price by $110 is a product of supply and demand. Since these cards are unlicensed, there is a good chance that the value will go down after the enthusiasm has worn off.
The checklist is also problematic. Because many current players are still under contract with Panini in one way or another, there are many veterans and retired players here. That means that the three autos, the main selling point here, will be heavy on less desirable players, and rookies will be harder to hit.
Still, Fanatics promises that we will find the biggest rookies: CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson in the checklist. We assume that will be fixed when the licensing issues are all ironed out. But it is a problem for 2023 Topps Composite Football.
Here are some examples of how sharply the odds drop when you go from hobby to retail products with 2023 Topps Composite Football.
Shop for 2023 Topps Composite Football boxes on eBay
Card | Hobby Box Odds | Mega Box Odds | Value Box Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Chrome Base Cards Gold Refractor | 7:20 | 1:9,822 | 1:9,758 |
Chrome Base Cards Superfractor | 1:20,981 | 1:456,688 | 1:400,064 |
Chrome Base Autograph Purple Speckle Variation | 2:41 | 1:2,456 | 1:2,455 |
Topps Chrome Black Blue Refractor | 5:13 | 1:6,525 | 1:6,559 |
Topps Chrome Black Autograph Variation Green Refractor | 7:43 | 1:9,928 | 1:10,002 |
As you can see, the difference in the odds is ridiculous. Topps seems determined to get people to buy the best cards through the hobby boxes.
Meanwhile, the retail is pretty much for suckers at this point. One Blowout Forums user pointed out, “Reading this makes me feel like retail products are solely made as a tax on people who don’t know hobby boxes exist. It’s not that hobby boxes are much better, but at least you know you could get something good. Retail has absolutely nothing.”
If you must get retail, pick up a Mega Box and nothing else. The odds there are significantly better.
But things get worse when you compare the odds for the hobby boxes with those of the Breaker Delight release. Take a look for yourself:
Card | Hobby Box Odds | Breakers Delight Odds |
---|---|---|
Chrome Base Cards Gold Refractor | 7:20 | 1:58 |
Chrome Base Cards Superfractor | 1:20,981 | 1:2,863 |
Chrome Base Autograph Purple Speckle Variation | 2:41 | 1:31 |
Topps Chrome Black Blue Refractor | 5:13 | 1:39 |
Topps Chrome Black Autograph Variation Green Refractor | 7:43 | 2:02 |
That seems to be the best bet if you can get your hands on these Breakers Delight boxes. However, it is a pretty annoying concept. It shows that Topps has some obvious priorities at play.
The breakers come first and only then the regular customers. They seem particularly disinterested in retail products, which seem entirely worthless for this product.
Much like the Chronicles product from which Topps got their inspiration, the Composite Football product has a massive checklist. It has a 450-card base set, which combines an entire slew of brands.
The base set will include Topps Chrome (#1-50), a new design and probably stand-alone product named Resurgence (#51-100), Chrome Black (#100-150), Finest (#151-200), Cosmic Chrome (251-300), a new released called Midnight (#301-350), Heritage (#351-375), Gallery (#376-400) and Allen & Ginter (#101-450).
If Chronicles is anything to go by, Topps Composite Football will not be an essential part of their annual lineup. No one sits and waits for Chronicles to come out finally, and the composite release will be no different. But it does show us which products they plan to use for football.
We already know that Bowman will be a crucial part of their lineup. Bowman University has been far more successful than expected. If it continues to develop the way it has, it could emulate the baseball cards, and Bowman 1sts for college players could rival rookie cards for value.
Shop for 2023 Topps Composite Football boxes on eBay
But now we have a much better idea of what else we are going to see:
Despite the many flaws we pointed out in 2023 Topps Composite Football, it sold out quickly, even at a high price for an unlicensed product. That means there is a massive hunger for Topps football products. This is a very encouraging sign for Fanatics. When they own and monopolize the licensing, eagerness should go right through the roof.
The great enthusiasm for this release is at least partially because this is the first honest-to-goodness football release from Topps in a long time. Old-timers like myself are enjoying seeing the Topps logo on football cards again.
But when Topps has their full range of football products out, this will be a pretty peripheral one. Fanatics will have to put a lot more effort into it in the future if they want Composite Football to stand out.
The cards reflect Topps’s deep roster of products. However, when we look at the lineup here, we see that they still have a way to go before competing with the range of products offered by Panini. But it is early days. After eliminating their rivals, Topps will have many years to perfect its offerings.
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