Will Increasing Print Runs Lower The Value of Parallels?

The checklist for the 2024 NFL Prizm recently came out, and many see it as an example of the overprinting problem that has long plagued the hobby.

With 63 parallels, there are way too many for comfort. That is especially concerning when you consider that this is watering down a hobby box that is currently selling for about $1,100.

The sheer number of parallels in this product has made some people feel like they are becoming a dime a dozen.

Does it mean much that a card is /50 when there are 63 types of /50 of the same card?

Are we excited about that? Will those cards continue to garner value, or will we all be eye-rolling at these parallels in a few years? That is a fundamental question we need to consider, so join us as we ask whether increasing print runs will lower the value of parallels.

The many parallels of 2024 Panini Prizm Football

An Instagram post by Modern Sports Card Investor restarted a long-standing conversation about the over-printing of cards. The post noted that the 2024 NFL Prizm checklist has 63 parallels.

They note an “18.87% increase compared to last year’s release 👀.” Geoff Wilson helpfully notes, “Man, that’s a lot.

The peanut gallery quickly responded in the comments: “Mass Production value killing! Topps does it, too, so yet again, the greed factor. Maybe if they pulled back, we could create a better supply/demand scenario, and things would hold value and go up much quicker!”

NEO Sports Cards and Comics host Rob Demay said something many of us are feeling in one of his recent videos. “You walk around a show, and it’s just the same card with a billion different parallels. Nothing is appealing about that. Please give me the classic silver and the classic refractor and a color match. I don’t need the swirly pixie dust fairy ball, the zebra stripe, the tiger stripe, or the giraffe. It’s just all nonsense.” Well said, Rob.

If you are curious, here is the complete list of parallels in 2024 Panini Prizm Football

• Black and Red Checker Prizms
• Black and White Checker Prizms
• Blue Prizms
• Choice Blue, Yellow, and Green Prizms
• Choice Tiger Stripe Prizms
• Disco Prizms
• Green Prizms
• Green Ice Prizms
• Lazer Prizms
• Neon Green Pulsar Prizms
• No Huddle Prizms
• Orange Ice Prizms
• Pink Prizms
• Pink Wave Prizms
• Press Proof Prizms
• Purple Pulsar Prizms
• Red Prizms
• Red Sparkle Prizms
• Red, White, and Blue Prizms
• Silver Prizms
• Snakeskin Prizms
• Wave Green Prizms
• White Sparkle Prizms
• Pandora Prizms – /400
• Orange Prizms – /249
• Blue Wave Prizms – /230
• Purple Ice Prizms – /225
• Hyper Prizms – /180
• Red Wave Prizms – /149
• Purple Prizms – /125
• Blue Ice Prizms – /99
• No Huddle Blue Prizms – /99
• Purple Wave Prizms – /99
• Blue Sparkle Prizms – /96
• Green Scope Prizms – /75
• No Huddle Red Prizms – /75
• Orange Wave Prizms – /60
• No Huddle Purple Prizms – /49
• Purple Power Prizms – /49
• Red and Yellow Prizms – /44
• Red Shimmer Prizms – /35
• White Prizms – /35
• Blue Shimmer Prizms – /25
• Navy Camo Prizms – /25
• No Huddle Pink Prizms – /25
• Gold Sparkle Prizms – /24
• Choice Red Prizms – /20
• Choice Cherry Blossom Prizms – /15
• Forest Camo Prizms – /15
• Choice Blue Prizms – /14
• Choice Gold Prizms – /10
• Gold Prizms – /10
• Gold Shimmer Prizms – /10
• No Huddle Neon Green Prizms – /10
• Wave Gold Prizms – /10
• Green Sparkle Prizms – /8
• Gold Vinyl Prizms – /5
• Green Shimmer Prizms – /5
• White Knight Prizms – /3
• Black Finite Prizms – 1/1
• Black Shimmer Prizms – 1/1
• Choice Nebula Prizms – 1/1
• Stars Black Prizms – 1/1

You will notice that some of these are grouped but are more than one type of parallel. That could hide the sheer volume of parallels in this release.

And will this be the last one with this magnitude? We seriously doubt it.

Why are there so many parallels?

No one cares about base cards anymore. Therefore, the measure of a box you buy is the hits you find in it. Since the price of boxes keeps increasing, you have to ensure that there is some reward for opening them.

But with print runs increasing, it’s hard to get enough hits to make the overpriced boxes seem worthwhile. That is where the extra parallels come in. They create an artificial scarcity that generates many hits. It makes opening a box seem more rewarding.

However, there is an obvious downside to this process. The more low-numbered cards there are, the less of a big deal each one becomes. The 63 for the 2024 Panini Prizm is an outlier.

But not that much of one. Many of the Topps releases had over 40 1/1 rookies in 2024. We would be surprised if Fanatics did not follow Panini over that cliff.

A more general problem

The shift to parallels and autos was supposed to prevent the following junk wax situation. But three years ago, some folks noticed that this was only a partial solution to the problem.

One user wrote on Reddit, “I get that there are many variations of cards, thus making them “different,” but with card breaks and tons of set releases, it feels as though there are way too many similar cards. People like to bring up “supply and demand,” but we’re the ones that ruined it in the first place. I’ve always collected, so I would collect no matter what. I would like it if the cards could maintain a decent value since the cards I collect would be passed down to family members… I’m 30; it might be a while, hopefully.”

The last time we had this kind of broad conversation on print runs was when the 2024 Topps Baseball Series 1 came out.

According to some calculations, 900,000 copies of each card were estimated to be printed, which is above most of the “junk wax” era sets.

Is it so bad?

Of course, that is offset by the fact that there are so many more limited parallels, etc. In the 2024 Topps Baseball Series 1 case, the Team Borders parallels were a fun SP that cleared up the tedium and alleviated the issue. However, the Prizm issue above also has limitations.

Some sets do not have creative parallels, and most of the additions seem pointless and do little to mask the inflation of cards.

At this point, the days when people sent base cards to get graded, hoping to get a good amount of money, should be over. Indeed, if you are still doing that, you should stop.

Before the COVID boom, the print runs for big sets like Prizm and Topps flagship were around half of that. The effects of the rise in print runs are ameliorated by the new blood that has poured into the hobby. The rise has been dramatic and may exceed the increased level of demand as well.

How print runs destroyed base cards

Base cards were the basis for the entire hobby until the 21^st century. However, a rash of overprinting before and during the COVID-19 boom made it clear that base cards are no longer worth much.

In 2021, Scottie B Cards used clear cards, which appeared only in hobby boxes, to determine the extent of print runs and foil cards to determine the number of full sets.

Here is what he found:

• 2014 Topps Chrome Update – 11,000-12,000 of each base card in the entire print run
• 2014 Topps Update – 72,800 of each base card in the entire print run
• 2021 Series 1 – 82,000 of each base card in the hobby boxes alone. 104,000 of the Walmart complete set, so 104,000 base cards are in each. 204,000 copies in hobby box sets. When adding those all together, it is 555,181 copies of each card. That was a rise of 34% from the previous years.

Scottie calculated that at that rate, each player would have a million cards within two years, which he believed was unsustainable. That is indeed what has happened. The result is well known. Base cards are not taken seriously anymore. Perhaps it was a mistake ever to take them seriously.

We are still very far from having this many parallels, but the trend is clear, and people are kind of over it.

What does this mean for you?

Being a collector today requires a particular savvy that it did not in the past. The landscape shifts and cards that were once worth a lot can decrease significantly. We saw that with base cards a few years ago, and now it will be the turn of parallels.

There are still many hobby enthusiasts who enthusiastically embrace low-numbered cards. However, with these many parallels, the laws of supply and demand are inevitable, and everyone will eventually get the memo. Aside from the quantity, there is also the question of quality.

The more parallels there are, the more random and unsatisfying the designs are. Many are similar. Others are just plain ugly. When there are too many parallels, and they are unattractive, the results are apparent.

The 1/1s and 1/5s are a decent investment for now. A rise of 20% or so in print runs would not change their status much. But the /25 and /50s are probably due for a real crash. Consider offloading those pretty quickly if you pull any. We should seriously reevaluate those cards.

Sellers are certainly running into this problem. One commenter on YouTube said, “I had a Trea Turner Carolina Blue Prizm /35, and I couldn’t even give it away on eBay for $5. He is in the top 3-5 shortstops in baseball right now, too, LOL! This shows that no one gives a shit about all these parallels.”

Can this be solved?

The issues here seem almost insoluble. Hobby enthusiasts want to be able to buy boxes quickly and cheaply, and they want the boxes to be full of fantastic hits. Considering the size of the hobby right now, that requires very extensive print runs, many parallels, and even generating the most significant number of autos possible.

If we try to limit the supply of base cards, we will have fewer boxes, and each will sell for higher prices. Meanwhile, if we restrict parallels and leave base cards plentiful, we will have many hitless boxes.

Each of these options is bad for the hobby and bad for collectors. Ultimately, either cards are scarce or they are not. We want Schrödinger’s cards, which are rare and common. Common when we are trying to get it, and rare when we have it. That is not how the markets work in real life.

Not everyone agrees that this problem needs to be resolved. Some believe that the hobby has become too oriented towards making a profit. High print runs will make cards cheaper again, allowing younger collectors access to the market and their favorite cards.

We need to differentiate between different types of brands. Topps’ flagship can be vastly overprinted. No one rips that stuff to get rich. It is a celebration of the baseball season and something you can enjoy with your kids.

The emphasis must be on keeping it at an affordable price point. Meanwhile, Prizm may have been a relatively inexpensive product you could collect without breaking the bank. But those days are irrevocably gone.

These boxes cost over $1,000 now. They cannot come with a bunch of overproduced junk. At that price, a box has to offer some real value.

The final word on whether increasing print runs will ruin the value of parallels

The sports card companies need to manufacture many supposed hits to fill box after box, and that is precisely what they are doing.

To achieve that goal, the sports card companies are relying on parallels. Memorabilia (if it is game used) and autos are hard to produce in massive numbers because they rely on finite resources.

But parallels can be created almost at will, as Panini has done with the Prizms. Therefore, there is a good chance that they will lose their luster and value over the next few years.

In my opinion, the danger is that people start seeing all parallels as more or less the same. Because they all look similar, they may not be the wisest investment anymore.

The more copies of a card there are, the more acute this is. We will monitor /10, /5, and 1/1 cards to see if their value seriously erodes. In the next few years, we should start seeing a more apparent divide emerge between autos and all the other cards.

That is where value will continue to accrue due to a genuine structural scarcity. So consider selling parallels while they still have good value. They may start to plummet as the numbers increase and attitudes towards them change.