
Just a few months ago, it looked like Pokémon had peaked, and people were over it.
But last year, in 2023, and now, in early 2024, the prices and demand for this TCG have skyrocketed. People are switching from sports cards to stash Pokemon booster boxes.
The market has become ridiculous. That is why everyone is asking, is sealed Pokémon a bubble?
Pokémon went up with everything else during the COVID bubble. At some points, it was doing far better than sports, and at others, less so. After the bubble popped, the Pokémon products seemed to go into a prolonged lull. They did not lose much value, but there was dynamism to their prices, either.
The host of NEO Sports Cards and Comics, Rob DeMay, explains how quickly the prices of these boxes are climbing: “I will check the price of a booster box in the morning for something from the last era, the Sword and Shield era, and then I will check it before I go to bed, and it will have gone up $25 a box, and that is not normal. It’s COVID-era level craziness.”
Usually, when new products are released, you can get them for under $100 upon release.
There usually seemed to be enough at the stores, and prices were relatively under control. The release of the Scarlet & Violet—Surging Sparks expansion on November 8, 2024, was a game changer regarding the value of new wax.
The expansion was described as evoking “laid-back, tropical vibes with new Tera Pokémon ex originally discovered in Alola. Perusing these cards is your staycation, with calming ocean waves and a balmy breeze.” Whatever that means, folks loved them.
Collectors saw prices rise like never before.
One wrote on Reddit at the time, “I don’t think I have seen this with any set in a while when the price of the box goes up by a lot before its release. I bought a case 2 weeks ago for $630…and it’s like $870 now. I bought 3 booster boxes for $110 a piece, which is $140-150% now. Almost a 25% increase in 2 weeks. Does anyone know why it keeps going up?”
There has never been a release with that kind of price that quickly. It is a massive sign of health for Pokémon releases. Remember, you can buy these boxes directly from Pokémon Center for around $165.
So, an artificial ceiling is placed on what people can charge for these boxes. However, high demand could also see a rise in the price at Pokémon Center. At least in theory. They will also sell out if the demand is too high. That is precisely what happened with Scarlet & Violet—Surging Sparks.
The secret to the popularity of these expensive packages was the main chase card in the release: the Pikachu ex 238/191, which was selling for $700 raw at the beginning.
Other cards that drove this release included the Latias ex 239/191, the Ceruledge ex 036/191, the Milotic ex 237/191, and the Lisia’s Appeal 246/191.
On January 17, we expect the release of Pokémon Scarlet & Violet Prismatic Evolutions. Since it is a specialty set, no boosters will be available. Instead, you can purchase Elite Trainer Boxes, Booster Bundles, Special boxed collections, and Pokémon TCG mini tins.
The preview pictures look fantastic, and there is already much hype surrounding the product. It is also going to enjoy very healthy sales. How bad have things gotten? Check this out. Some stores are refusing to carry the new releases because they are concerned for the safety of their stores.
One individual posted on Reddit: “Two stores in my area (one doesn’t have social media) are refusing to carry the new set. See you all on the front lines of battle.” One commenter responded, “During the GPU shortage, my microcenter had to hire security because people are animals: Nerd brawls, broken windows, increased theft, and people camping in stores all day. They started limiting time in the store, so people camped in the bathrooms. Neckbeards” started pissing and shitting in the sink because other campers were in the stalls.”
It sounds like the worst of the COVID era with sports card wax. Only more disgusting.
Some reasons this has become the central fulcrum of Pokemon wax investment.
For these reasons, boosters are the premier type of sealed wax people store, and that will likely hold in the long run.
Sports cards have withstood the test of time. They have gone through boom and bust cycles and ended up rising. Pokemon has already withstood some serious challenges. It may also have a similar cultural status by now.
Ten months ago, one Reddit user had this optimistic take:
“Millennial buyers will probably fuel the market to reach higher for another 20-30 years; the Pokemon generation has not even reached peak earning/wealth years. The nostalgia for the 30-year-olds now will probably be even more significant for the 50-year-olds in 20 years.
After 20-30 years, the growth will depend on how well Pokemon penetrates the next generation.
People are ripping sealed, which is making it less and less available. In 20 years, there will be A LOT of wealthy people with excess disposable income who want to spend it on ripping packs from their youth.
Lastly, as someone who remembers expedition/sky ridge packs being 4€ a piece, I’m not missing the boat again.”
Pokemon has a massive advantage over its sports card counterparts. Or at least its ultra-modern sports card counterparts: people want to own and keep these cards.
There is a far more developed collectors mentality here than in sports, where “investing” has become the norm with most young athletes.
In addition, at the risk of stating the obvious, Pokemon is a TCG, and you can play it. Players are constantly developing and improving their decks. Cards have far more utility, while base sports cards have become irrelevant.
If so, Pokemon has a specific practical aspect that is notably lacking in sports cards. It is a game, first and foremost. That is why wax and the idea of investing in sealed wax for Pokemon was slower in coming to these cards.
But now it is far more popular. Ironically, the lack of investment early on is one of the elements that has spurred interest now. There isn’t as much sealed wax available for TCG as for sports, so prices are higher. That raises demand, making people more interested in stashing their boxes.
The free market is in action, folks.
That means you now have actual collectors of Pokemon-sealed wax. You also have folks waiting to sell it when prices go up. Considering how high the values of the most recent releases have gone, this mentality is not going anywhere.
There is also that new element everyone is discussing: CT scans. For sports cards, this has proven to be a big problem. There are costly products that are highly valued because of a few chase cards.
If you know what is in them, it is a game changer. For Pokemon, there are fewer chase cards and few massive cards. Meanwhile, the boxes are also not THAT expensive. Therefore, the incentive to spend hundreds of dollars on a CT scan is simply not there.
While there are unique reasons to invest in Pokemon wax, some are similar to sports cards. Any wax becomes less plentiful over time while the amount of graded cards increases. That is one of the secrets to the enduring value of wax.
Another is that with sealed wax, you are always paying for the potential of the cards within. Meanwhile, with singles, you are paying for the reality. The fantasy is usually worth more than the reality. Though with fewer big hits, that is a more tangible advantage for sports wax.
What prices can we expect for Pokemon in the near uture?
It looks like the days of $80-90 booster boxes are gone. Getting any boxes for less than $115 is very hard, including some of the less popular releases. Even when some releases go down a bit, I don’t think they will lose that much of their value.
With all these sports card types stashing boxes, many of them are looking to hold on to them in the long term, so prices will stay somewhat high.
The hoarding of booster boxes is changing the reality of Pokemon collecting. The higher prices mean that those wax forms are becoming an increasingly bad deal. Instead, look for products that people are not stashing away.
The collection boxes are sold for much lower prices per card, which can give you a much better return on investment than the booster boxes.
Look at the prices for things like Collector’s Chests or the Professor Juniper Premium Tournament Collection Box, which offer many cards equivalent to ones in a booster box at a far more competitive price. Another option is to pick up Battle Stadium boxes. If you pick up three of those, you are getting the equivalent of 36 booster packs.
Many of these other packages have extra and unique cards. Meanwhile, the booster boxes are mostly made of highly generic cards. It does not appear that the various wax hoarding types have figured this out yet, but they may do so in the future, so make sure to act quickly.
Breaking has completely taken over in sports cards. That is where most of the action with new releases is located. The most oversized cards are pulled there. The sports card companies provide breakers with the best boxes. The entire industry is geared towards this stuff.
That is not done with Pokemon. Instead, they practice “rip and ship,” where the cards are opened online and sent to the customer. It is pretty similar to what sports card collectors call a personal break. It is generally a far more wholesome experience than its sports card equivalent.
There is more of a sense of community, and rippers tend to throw in more and better free cards.
Whether you prefer the sense of community or to rip the packs yourself becomes a question. The increasing popularity of the “rip and ship” method is increasing product demand. They have to fill up hours of content, which has changed the entire market.
Because of the increased demand and the sense that the market is improving constantly, many wax collectors are holding onto their inventory.
After all, if you believe your wax will reach new heights, why would you remove the boxes on your shelf? They could end up being worth more than they are now.
Many people thought the climbing would go on forever whenever a bubble was at its peak. Think of Top Shot and other NFTs like the Bored Ape Yacht Club.
Sometimes people are just plain wrong. One of the signs that things are coming to a head is when outside sources start noticing. My writing about it is one example. Other sports card folks are also joining in this and making a good amount of content about it.
For example, Dustin from Sports Cards Dad has been making videos about this issue in the last few days. Here is an example:
Dustin says, “Sports card collectors/speculators are moving over to Pokemon ‘investing,’ or probably more like speculating.”
The word that keeps coming up when people describe the current Pokémon market is FOMO (fear of missing out). When demand outpaces supply, people tend to be willing to buy boxes at a higher price than usual so that they are not the only ones on the block without a box.
Another thing that is feeding the emphasis on wax is the lack of numbered or very high chase cards. You know more or less what you are getting in each box. Therefore, ripping is less attractive than in sports, where collectors always wonder if a low-numbered parallel or an auto lurks there.
We can only speculate on whether this is a bubble or not. But speculation is part of the issue here. Now that people have discovered the potential for these boxes, they will not let go so quickly.
The hoarding of booster boxes will continue but will have a less dramatic influence on prices in the future. The Pokémon Center restocks these releases, which will cut into the profit margin of the hoarders.
These card sets don’t have the same kind of unique rookie class that will make some releases particularly worthwhile, and the lack of numbered and auto cards will also limit the value of specific boxes. But we will be watching this market closely.
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