In our August 2024 report on the latest grading trends, we look at the complete numbers of grading during June, which is the latest month available to us.
May was a massive month for grading, especially for sports cards. We saw a rise of 10% in grading activity.
The number of items graded was a reasonably incredible 1.78 million cards. But in June, it was a very different story. There was a dip even more significant than the rise in May.
We weren’t expecting anything like the 14% drop we saw that month. So what happened? Where was the weakness? We have the answer in our overview of sports card grading trends for June 2024.
In May, TCG stood pat, while sports showed very impressive gains. Particular growth was seen in the football and basketball sectors. But this time, we know that a lot of ground was gained. But where exactly?
Type of Submission | Numbers Submitted In June | Movement in Comparison To May |
---|---|---|
TCG | 376,000 | -14% |
Baseball | 228,500 | -16% |
Basketball | 217,300 | -9% |
Football | 178,200 | -22% |
Non-Sport | 49,000 | -23% |
Hockey | 41,000 | -18% |
Soccer | 32,000 | -2% |
Fighting Sports | 12,000 | -15% |
I’ve been doing the grading beat for quite a while, but I have never seen such uniform collapse on all fronts. That includes the sport that you would most expect to rise now, football, which is approaching the season.
However, NFL cards took a significant beating in June, which was particularly unexpected. The biggest collapse happens to be in non-sports.
PSA has gradually become more substantial than all the opposition. Since the company was already starting from the point of absolute domination, the other companies were becoming largely irrelevant.
But what does June’s weakness mean for the competition between the grading companies?
Grading Company | Number of Submissions | Movement from March |
---|---|---|
PSA | 1.16 million | -15% |
CGC | 178,000 | -3% |
SGC | 147,000 | -15% |
BGS | 52,000 | -11% |
CGC only lost a bit of clout. Everyone else took a big hit, with PSA and SCG tied at 15% for loss. This does little to challenge the PSA monopoly.
The most notable trend in this regard has been the gradual reduction of vintage cards from the submission pool. Over the last year, the rate of ultra-modern submissions went up from around 50% a year ago to two-thirds in May.
Did people start running out of desirable vintage cards, or are people just over them? Either way, we checked the current trend.
Decade | PSA (Sports Only) | PSA (TCG Only) | BGS (Sports Only) | SGC (Sports Only) | CGC (TCG Only) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020s | 63.60% | 59.2 | 61.50% | 50% | 48.50% |
2010s | 9% | 13% | 14.60% | 7.30% | 12.10% |
2000s | 4.20% | 14% | 6.30% | 4.10% | 21.50% |
1990s | 8.70% | 11% | 9.20% | 8.40% | 16% |
1980s | 6.70% | 1% | 4.60% | 6.10% | 0.60% |
1970s | 3.40% | 1% | 1.20% | 5.60% | 0.20% |
1960s | 2.60% | 0% | 1.50% | 7.70% | 0.40% |
The 1950s and earlier | 1.80% | 0% | 1.10% | 10.80% | 0.70% |
The overall percentage of ultra-modern softened for PSA and particularly for BGS. However, that is likely more a result of decreased enthusiasm for the ultra-modern cards, which drive the entire sector, rather than renewed enthusiasm for vintage cards.
Gem rates are the most crucial element in determining the identity of the grading companies. Therefore, we follow them very closely.
Decade | PSA (Sports Only) | PSA (TCG Only) | BGS (Sports Only) | SGC (Sports Only) | CGC (TCG Only) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020s | 53.60% | 68.90% | 52.60% | 42.20% | 62.90% |
2010s | 46.50% | 47.70% | 46.80% | 17.20% | 42.20% |
2000s | 26.40% | 20.70% | 17.80% | 8.60% | 11.50% |
1990s | 18.50% | 16.80% | 10.60% | 6.40% | 16.10% |
1980s | 10.80% | 15.50% | 3.40% | 12.20% | 12.30% |
1970s | 2.40% | 1.90% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1960s | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
The 1950s and earlier | 0.10% | 2.10% | 0% | 0.30% | 0% |
The PSA gem rate for ultra-modern cards has remained the same. Meanwhile, the BGS gem rate decreased by about 2%, and the SGC rate decreased by 3%.
That means that currently, BGS and PSA are about the same. Meanwhile, SGC is back to being the harshest grader in the business. For a while, Beckett was the most challenging grader, and they were trying to rebrand, but they have now abandoned that because it did not help their popularity.
It seemed that Charizard and Shohei Ohtani would rule the charts forever. But CJ Stroud and Wemby have changed everything for sports. Meanwhile, the three for TCG are always the same. Will that change?
We expected it ages ago, but Wemby became the hobby king in May. Is there to stay?
Athlete | Amount Submitted In June | Movement from May |
---|---|---|
Victor Wembanyama | 43,500 | -12% |
Michael Jordan | 22,200 | 0.07 |
CJ Stroud | 19,200 | -32% |
Anthony Edwards | 12,500 | 0.82 |
Shohei Ohtani | 11,300 | -29% |
Anthony Richardson | 9,000 | -32% |
LeBron James | 7,800 | -14% |
Elly De La Cruz | 7,700 | 0.06 |
Connor Bedard | 7,300 | -31% |
Kobe Bryant | 7,000 | -15% |
The unexplained massive rise of Anthony Edwards is probably the biggest surprise in these charts. We also didn’t expect Michael Jordan to enjoy a big revival suddenly.
But we are not surprised to see Wemby in first place. He has almost double the number of submissions in second place despite a 12% decline.
Will anything change in our most steady (or boring) chart?
Character | Amount Submitted In June | Movement from May |
---|---|---|
Charizard | 28,300 | -11% |
Pikachu | 21,900 | -19% |
Mew | 8,900 | -13% |
Mewtwo | 5,900 | -11% |
Blastoise Gengar | 5,600 | -15% |
Umbreon | 5,400 | -4% |
Monkey D. Luffy | 5,200 | -7% |
Venusaur | 4,500 | -31% |
Eevee | 4,500 | -13% |
Rayquaza | 3,600 | -7% |
Yeah, nothing changed here. Gengar rose a bit or something. But every single character also lost ground.
How did sports fare in comparison with TCG?
Characters or Athletes | Amount Submitted In June | Movement from May |
---|---|---|
Victor Wembanyama | 43,500 | -12% |
Charizard | 28,300 | -11% |
Michael Jordan | 22,200 | 7% |
Pikachu | 21,900 | -19% |
CJ Stroud | 19,200 | -32% |
Anthony Edwards | 12,500 | 82% |
Shohei Ohtani | 11,300 | -29% |
Anthony Richardson | 9,000 | -32% |
Mew | 8,900 | -13% |
LeBron James | 7,800 | -14% |
Athletes are dominating the combined charts these days. Seven of the top ten come from sports, and Wemby holds the top spot overall.
The most rapidly moving charts tend to be the sets, especially the sports charts, where dominance is rarely established for longer than a month or two.
We won’t have Prizm around for much longer, so seeing all three top spots go to that storied franchise was nice. Did it last?
Set | Number Graded In June | Change from May |
---|---|---|
2023 Panini Prizm Football | 28,800 | -35% |
2023 Panini Prizm Basketball | 26,000 | -24% |
2023 Panini Select | 14,300 | N/A |
2023 Upper Deck Hockey | 6,200 | -32% |
2023 Prizm Monopoly Basketball | 5,900 | -48% |
2024 Topps Now | 5,800 | 32% |
202023 Bowman Draft Baseball | 4,600 | -30% |
2024 Topps Baseball | 4,600 | -31% |
2023 Panini Donruss Basketball | 4,600 | -42% |
1986 Fleer | 4,200 | 8% |
The two top sets are Prizm again, though they have lost a lot of ground from last month. Curiously, the only set that gained was Topps Now.
Set | Number Graded In June | Change from May |
---|---|---|
2024 Pokémon Japanese Sv2a- Pokémon 151 | 13,000 | -4% |
2023 Pokémon MEW EN-151 | 11,100 | -20% |
1999 Pokémon Game | 8,700 | -4% |
2022 Pokémon Japanese Sword & Shield Vstar Universe | 7,400 | 21% |
2024 Pokémon Paf EN-Paldean Fates | 6,400 | -18% |
2021 Pokémon Sword & Shield Evolving Skies | 6,300 | 14% |
2023 Pokémon Sword & Shield Crown Zenith | 6,200 | 4% |
2024 Pokémon Tef EN-Temporal Forces | 6,000 | -12% |
2023 Pokémon Svp-SV Black Star Promo | 5,900 | -20% |
2023 Pokémon Japanese Sv4a-Shiny Treasure EX | 4,900 | -30% |
The 2024 Pokémon Japanese Sv2a- Pokémon 151 is back in first place. The 2022 Pokémon Japanese Sword & Shield Vstar Universe was one of only two products that made significant gains.
Set | Number Graded In June | Change from May |
---|---|---|
2023 Panini Prizm Football | 28,800 | -35% |
2023 Panini Prizm Basketball | 26,000 | -24% |
2023 Panini Select | 14,300 | N/A |
2024 Pokémon Japanese Sv2a- Pokémon 151 | 13,000 | -4% |
2023 Pokémon MEW EN-151 | 11,100 | -20% |
1999 Pokémon Game | 8,700 | -4% |
2022 Pokémon Japanese Sword & Shield Vstar Universe | 7,400 | 21% |
2024 Pokémon Paf EN-Paldean Fates | 6,400 | -18% |
2021 Pokémon Sword & Shield Evolving Skies | 6,300 | 14% |
2023 Pokémon Sword & Shield Crown Zenith | 6,200 | 4% |
The two Prizms are also first in the United Charts. Behind the top three sports, everything is TCG.
What about the most graded cards? We have had2023 Pokémon svp EN-SV Black Star Promo Pikachu W/Grey Felt Hat Pokemon X Van Gogh #85 in first place for months now. Meanwhile, Wemby had the top three and five out of the top ten.
Will Wemby dominate completely the way he did in May?
Card | Number Graded In June | Change from May |
---|---|---|
2023 Panini Prizm Victor Wembanyama #136 | 5,800 | -30% |
2023 Panini Prizm Monopoly Victor Wembanyama #81 | 2,500 | -53% |
2023 Panini Select Victor Wembanyama Blue #87 | 2,400 | 9.59 |
2023 Panini Donruss Victor Wembanyama #220 | 2,000 | -40% |
2023 Upper Deck Connor Bedard #451 | 1,900 | -25% |
2023 Panini Prizm CJ Stroud #339 | 1,600 | -49% |
2024 Topps Elly De La Cruz #141 | 1,400 | -21% |
2024 Topps Now Caleb Williams #D1 | 1,200 | 974% |
2023 Panini Donruss CJ Stroud #339 | 1,100 | -44% |
2020 Panini Prizm Anthony Edwards #258 | 1,000 | 43% |
Last time, Wemby was in the top three, but that wasn’t enough for him. This time, he got in the top four. Caleb Williams is a new arrival, and we are not surprised by the buzz around the Heisman winner.
Indeed, his presence helped vault Topps into a high spot in the product sweepstakes.
Card | Number Graded In June | Change from May |
---|---|---|
2023 Pokémon svp EN-SV Black Star Promo Pikachu W/Grey Felt Hat Pokemon X Van Gogh #85 | 3,800 | -21% |
2023 Pokémon Mew EN-151 Charizard EX Special Illustration Rare #199 | 1,600 | -19% |
2024 Pokémon Paf EN-Paldean Fates Charizard EX Special Illustration Rare #234 | 1,200 | -19% |
2023 Pokémon Japanese SV1a-Triplet Beat Magikarp Art Rare #80 | 1,200 | 31% |
1999 Pokémon Game Charizard-Holo #4 | 1,000 | -6% |
2024 Pokémon Paf EN-Paldean Fates Mew Ex-Special Illustrations Rare #232 | 1,000 | -13% |
2024 Pokémon Japanese Sv5a-Crimson Haze Eevee Art Rare #78 | 900 | -15% |
2023 Pokémon Mew EN-151 Blastoise EX Special Illustration Rare #200 | 900 | -18% |
2023 Pokémon Japanese Sv2a- Pokémon 151 Charizard EX Special Art Rare #201 | 900 | -3% |
2023 Pokémon Japanese Sv4-a Shiny Treasure EX Charizard EX Special Art Rare #349 | 900 | -28% |
The Van Gogh is still in pole position. Even though it has weakened significantly, it is still more than double its nearest rival. This is clearly one of the most iconic Pokemon cards ever—and for good reason. Meanwhile, that tried-and-true class, the1999 Pokémon Game Charizard-Holo #4, is back in fifth place.
Wemby had the top two in May, with the 2023 Pokémon svp EN-SV Black Star Promo Pikachu W/Grey Felt Hat Pokemon X Van Gogh #85 in third. What happened in June?
Card | Number Graded In June | Change from May |
---|---|---|
2023 Panini Prizm Victor Wembanyama #136 | 5,800 | -30% |
2023 Pokémon svp EN-SV Black Star Promo Pikachu W/Grey Felt Hat Pokemon X Van Gogh #85 | 3,800 | -21% |
2023 Panini Prizm Monopoly Victor Wembanyama #81 | 2,500 | -53% |
2023 Panini Select Victor Wembanyama Blue #87 | 2,400 | 959% |
2023 Panini Donruss Victor Wembanyama #220 | 2,000 | -40% |
2023 Upper Deck Connor Bedard #451 | 1,900 | -25% |
2023 Panini Prizm CJ Stroud #339 | 1,600 | -49% |
2023 Pokémon Mew EN-151 Charizard EX Special Illustration Rare #199 | 1,600 | -19% |
2024 Topps Elly De La Cruz #141 | 1,400 | -21% |
2024 Topps Now Caleb Williams #D1 | 1,200 | 974% |
The 2023 Panini Prizm Victor Wembanyama #136 is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the hobby. That is pretty predictable. The Van Gogh is the only card that is even remotely close. The other notable thing is that no less than eight of the top ten cards are sports items. Pokémon is losing steam.
June was a surprisingly weak month for grading. However, that is unlikely to prove significant. We usually see a nice bounce after a slow month. The hobby’s fundamentals are strong, and it just seems to keep on growing.
Other notes: we are deep in the Wemby era. He is utterly dominant. That is what happens when a phenomenal prospect turns into a legit superstar. And Pokémon is losing submissions. We wonder if that trend will continue.
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