Super Bowl 58 is finally upon us and we get to watch Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs take on the San Fransico 49ers.
In this article, we’ll look at all things Super Bowl: how it impacts cards, the best storylines to watch for, products to invest in, and more!
Shop for Rookie Cards of Super Bowl stars on eBay:
How much does a Super Bowl matter for cards?
Winning the Super Bowl is the single-biggest value boost for a player’s cards throughout the NFL season. It’s even bigger than winning an MVP, although you can argue the value impact of an MVP season compounds more gradually than becoming an overnight champion.
We’ve written about this before, but the value of a card can double (or more) in price between the offseason and playoffs. Going one step further – winning the Super Bowl – will push the card to the next level.
It’s safe to estimate that the winning quarterback, either Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy, will see their value increase 15% by the end of the game.
But also note that these prices won’t last forever.
I’d argue that right before the Super Bowl is the worst time to buy cards of the players in the big game. One team will lose and the value of their cards will drop off overnight.
The other team will win, experience a brief spike, and then prices will begin to trickle back down as the offseason approaches, the football world resets, and we begin looking forward to next year.
For example, check out this graph from our friends at CardLadder that shows Joe Burrow’s spike during his Super Bowl run in 2022. Then, more notably, look at his cards since losing the big game.
The Super Bowl will impact cards, but let it impact cards you already own – not cards you’re buying this week.
Here are a few storylines that collectors can get excited about as the Super Bowl draws near. Let’s see how they play out!
There’s something special about getting a third Super Bowl. Some have said it will immediately elevate Mahomes about Montana and solidify second place on the all-time quarterbacks list, but for me, he’s already easily there.
This is probably the worst Chiefs team in the last five years, and he still dragged them to the big game. If Mahomes gets a third, his cards will spike again, but the floor will be even higher than ever.
Purdy was a fun story last year, but now it’s becoming almost annoying. He’s the most divisive player in the NFL and it’s not even close.
That said, Mr. Irrelevant winning the Super Bowl would only strengthen the argument of those who say he’s a good quarterback… and give the “he’s a system player” camp even more to complain about.
Can’t wait for another year of that. Either way, a Super Bowl win will mean a value surge.
Both teams have an NFL titan on their team that doesn’t get enough love in the card space: Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffrey.
Yes, quarterbacks have always been the stars in collecting, but the gap is getting ridiculous. For example, a PSA 10 McCaffrey silver Prizm PSA 10 sells for $200 while the Purdy is selling for about $900 (as of 1/30/2024).
That’s crazy. We’ve seen firsthand how McCaffrey might be even more of a difference-maker for the 49ers than Purdy (they looked rough in the few games he’s missed).
Either way, McCaffrey or Kelce could be the biggest winners from the Super Bowl, in terms of percentage gained, if either has a big day.
For sports card collectors, there aren’t too many rookies of note in this year’s Super Bowl. I only recommend investing in skills players – and usually only quarterbacks, at that – so it’s pretty limited.
Rashee Rice is hands-down the obvious choice. He’s the Chief’s #1 receiver, but for the 2023 campaign, that hasn’t said too much.
Still, Rice has gotten better throughout the season and looks like he could have a nice long-term relationship with Mahomes. This might be the first of many Super Bowls together for them.
It’s hard to think about this game without thinking “Mahomes vs. the 49ers.”
Sure, the defensive unit isn’t a slouch, but the Chiefs have still struggled all year and not looked like the juggernaut we’re used to, only for Mahomes to still get them here.
The 49ers, on the other hand, are the best complete team in football. In a game that’s reminiscent of some LeBron vs. Spurs or LeBron vs Warriors finals, we’ll see if Mahomes’ singular greatness is enough to topple an amazing team.
Mahomes is the best. Before the season started, I wrote that Mahomes and the Chiefs would be my pick until proven otherwise. Nothing’s changed.
Mahomes could add to his already staggering legacy with a Super Bowl win, boosting his value even higher, but his cards are already so valuable that the ceiling isn’t quite as high as it is for Hurts.
Travis Kelce probably deserves more love. Yes, he’s a tight end, and tight-end cards don’t get much value.
And yes, his Topps Chrome rookie card looks like somebody at Topps said, “Travis, man, we forgot to get a pic so could you go snap one in your backyard? Doesn’t matter what you’re wearing or doing.”
But still, Kelce has been one of the best pass-catchers in the league over the last 5+ years regardless of position, and his decade-old rookie card should carry more value. Perhaps a monster Super Bowl performance is what it takes to get there.
For the reasons outlined above, Purdy is an interesting case here. He could be the last pick of the draft and boast the best record for a quarterback through their first 25 games, plus have a Super Bowl win, and still, people wouldn’t buy.
McCaffrey might be the best player in the NFL not named Mahomes. Since he was traded to the 49ers, they’re 22-3 in games that he’s fully played.
That’s wild. And still, he doesn’t get the love or attention that Brock Purdy receives. If he has a monster game and the 49ers win, maybe that changes?
If you’re looking to invest in sealed products containing this year’s Super Bowl stars, here’s our Top 5 product countdown.
But, as mentioned earlier, now is probably not the time to buy. Put these on your radar for this offseason!
Note: 2017 boxes have Mahomes and McCaffrey rookie cards while 2022 boxes are Brock Purdy’s rookie year.
I wasn’t sure which one to put here… so I put both years. Donruss made a lot of strides between 2017 and 2022, but either way, this is a great product for investing without spending thousands of dollars.
Optic 2022 is the lower-priced version of Prizm: lots of great cards and high-ceiling potential but at only half the cost. If you’re not looking to go too all-in, this could be a great product at a reasonable price.
If you’re not looking to pay thousands of dollars for 2017 Prizm, perhaps you’d rather pay thousands of dollars for 2017 Optic. Joking aside, 2017 Optic is a great long-term hold at about half the entry price as Prizm.
2022 Prizm doesn’t have much going for it, but it does have Brock Purdy. That alone makes this exciting Super Bowl week rip.
The Silver Prizm is Patrick Mahomes best rookie card, and this is the product where you’ll pull them.
The one chink in 2017 Prizm’s armor is that this is the year that all rookies were silver (along with 2016), but that still hasn’t kept the value of Mahomes down, either. These boxes are going for about $7,000.
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