The shiny new nature and unlimited potential of prospects has been a driving force in the hobby for many decades. The promise of a young prospect can lead to dreams of stardom…and big profits.
But the reality is often not nearly as rosy. Time, and a major league slider, have a way of taking the shine of even the most perfect looking prospects.
Today, we will get into the hobby time machine and look back 10 years at some of the top prospects of the 2015 major league draft and 2015 Bowman Draft to see which prospects are still worth talking about 10 years on.
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There is something undeniably exciting about the concept of prospecting. Getting in on the ground level of a top prospect as they rise to stardom can lead to large investment returns and general good hobby vibes.
Of course, that’s when it works out. Quite often, even the top-rated young players turn out to be busts, and even those that go onto solid careers end up with little hobby value. Far more prospects will miss than hit, and guessing right can be a real challenge.
Back in the 1980s, the prospect game involved buying a player’s rookie card in bulk lots of 50 or 100 at maybe 10 cents each and hoping they would increase in value to $2-3 each.
Today, a player’s first card appears shortly after they are drafted (or maybe before) and they don’t cost 10 cents. Some cards of recent draftees, especially rarer parallels and autographs, can sell for more than 75-year-old rookie cards of Hall of Famers.
That means the risk associated with prospecting is higher than ever.
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But what can the prospect game look like in the long term, like after a decade? To find out, let’s look at 2015 Bowman Draft, the big prospect product that came out 10 years ago. It features many 1st Bowman cards from, well, players from the 2015 Draft. Over 135 of these First Bowman Cards (FBC). Actually.
How many of these players and cards held up to the harsh passage of time? We’ll start by looking at the highest recent sales of 2015 Bowman Draft and Draft Chrome cards to see what players have held their value a decade into their pro careers. Let’s dive in!
The highest recent sale for a 2015 Bowman Draft card was a 2015 Bowman Chrome Draft Orange Refractor Auto /25 Walker Buehler in BGS 9, which sold for $2,000.
Buehler, the 24th overall pick in 2015, is a two-time All Star, a two-time World Champion, and a two-time recipient of Tommy John surgery. When at his best, he’s a dynamic player, although health has been a concern. Going into his age 30 season, will his career from here out keep his cards in demand?
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Several top spots for highest sale price belong to Kyle Tucker, the #5 overall pick in 2015. These include a Red Refractor 3/5 in BGS 9.5, which sold for $1,600, a Gold Refractor /50 in BGS 9.5/10 that sold for $1,300, and a PSA 9/10 sold for $1,250.
A Green Refractor /99 in PSA 10 sold for $1,000. Tucker is a three-time All Star, has a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and has been worth 23 WAR in his career heading into his age 28 season.
Dansby Swanson was the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft. An Orange Refractor /25 in PSA 9 recently sold for $750. Swanson is a defensive wiz who’s won two Gold Glove awards and is a two-time All Star.
Austin Riley was selected #41 overall in 2015, but his 20.8 career WAR is 4th in the draft class. A 2015 Bowman Draft Green Refractor Auto /99 in BGS 9.5/10 sold for $600, and a Refractor in PSA 10 sold for $500.
Of note is that the #2 overall pick in the 2015 draft, Alex Bregman, was not in 2015 Bowman Draft. He likely is the best player from the draft, with 39.6 WAR so far in his career.
Interestingly, Bregman appeared in 2010 and 2011 Bowman products due to his involvement with USA Baseball. Other players from the 2015 MLB Draft with career WAR totals over Buehler’s 12.2 but no recent card sales over $500 include Ian Happ, Andrew Benintendi, and Ke’Bryan Hayes.
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In this article, we discussed a handful of players whose cards are still in demand 10 years into their pro careers. That means over 125 players with FBC cards in the 2015 Bowman Draft have already busted.
The players who are still of interest will have mixed futures. Some will fade and join the vast majority of their FBC brothers. Others will have solid careers but fall out of favor with the collecting community.
Maybe there’s a fan favorite or Hall of Famer in there whose cards will continue to be in demand in 5, 10, or 20 more years, but hopefully, this retrospective look back has helped you put prospecting into perspective.
Of course, that’s not to say you shouldn’t chase prospects. Just be aware of the risks and the high rate of “misses”. The 2015 draft was probably not one of the strongest at the time, and history hasn’t been kind to the majority of players taken that year.
What’s your take on prospects? If you’re a long-time collector, did you chase some of the players mentioned in this article? Did you chase some that didn’t pan out? Share your experience with us at CardLines on X.
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