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Taking A Break From Breaking: The Case For Finding Value In Singles

box versus singles2

Breaking wax is a big part of the hobby. Whether you’re breaking a box at your kitchen table or buying into a break, the thrill of the hunt and the uncovering of the unknown can provide a real rush.

The joy of pulling and sharing a big hit on social media provides a rush of endorphins that feels good.

But in recent years, the value collectors find in boxes has, on average, fallen well short of the money they paid for the box. This can lead to burnout and a significant lightening of the wallet, making the hobby feel expensive and a bit of a drag.

What is the driver behind this phenomenon? And what are some alternative options to find hobby value and happiness? Let’s explore finding value in singles!

The ever-rising price of wax

It is no secret that the price of unopened wax has increased significantly over the last few years. In some ways, it’s not surprising, as many Topps products sell out on Topps.com within mere moments.

When demand outstrips supply, prices go up. There’s no good reason for Topps to keep prices low and let secondary sellers make all the profit.

However, due to these price bumps, it’s becoming increasingly expensive to break unopened material, and it’s becoming increasingly rare to get more value out of a box than the cost to purchase it.

I write a lot of reviews of new products on Cardlines, and I can’t remember the last time I suggested a product might offer a consistent return on investment.

Ripping packs is like gambling

So, ripping wax has become very much like gambling. It’s putting down your money and hoping for the big win that makes that box, and several others, worthwhile. Meanwhile, most boxes offer the thrill of the chase, a lottery ticket chance of a big hit, and less value than the price of admission.

Social media and breakers help drive the hype machine by posting their big hits and great boxes, but the duds often don’t get posted. That’s human nature. So is FOMO, which drives collectors to buy ever-more-expensive boxes, hoping for the big hit.

It’s the ever-present allure of the mystery box. Because a boat is a boat, but the mystery box could be anything…it could even be a boat.

Buying singles: The advantages

One alternative to buying unopened boxes is buying single cards, either raw or graded. It’s an oddity of the modern hobby that most of the cards in the product, including some really nice hits, sell for less than the cost of the box.

The best hits, of course, sell for more than the cost of a box, sometimes many times more, but those are both a very small percentage of the cards and are in a very small percentage of the boxes.

This approach provides less thrill of the chase but more guaranteed value. If you’re willing to make that trade-off, you get not only a better return on your investment but also get to select what singles you buy so you can drive them toward your likes and personal collection.

If you’re a fan of Ohtani, don’t rip wax hoping to pull a serial numbered or autographed Ohtani…just buy an Ohtani.

How to buy singles over new unopened boxes

There are several approaches to buying singles over buying new unopened wax, including:

Buy singles from the new product

This may require waiting until the product is out in the wild for a few weeks and singles start showing up on eBay and other selling platforms, but you may be surprised by the quality of cards that you can find for less than the cost of a box.

Buy singles from older products

The beauty of this approach is that there is no wait period required. Also, instead of limiting yourself to a single product, you can pick any card that catches your fancy from any product across multiple years.

Buying vintage

This is my personal favorite, as the bulk of my collection is vintage cards and this is where my interest lies. Whether you fall into that category or just want to branch out, there are thousands of players to choose from across 100+ years of history in various grades, raw or slabbed.

You’d be amazed what cards of icons from the past you can find for the same price or less than an ultra-modern box.

The analogy I often use when talking about buying singles is that I know some people who like to gamble, either at the casino or via scratch tickets or lotto games. That’s like breaking wax.

I like drinking beer. Both are unhealthy hobbies that cost money. But the vast majority of the time, the gambled/wax breaker are going to end up disappointed.

Sure, there’s the chance they win big. Meanwhile, every time I buy a beer I win…a beer. It’s maybe unexciting (but delicious), but it’s far more of a guaranteed pay-off.

Buying singles vs. breaking case study: 2024 Topps Chrome Update

2024 Topps Chrome Update was released to a lot of hype back in November. Between a strong rookie class and 1/1 MLB Debut Patches of Paul Skenes and others, there’s a lot for box breakers to chase.

With the Skenes 1/1 still out there, these boxes are selling for $650-700 for a hobby box after selling out in mere minutes on Topps.com at $380/box.

The product has already produced some big hits. A Noelvi Marte Rookie Debut Patch card sold recently for $20,000. A Triple Auto of Holliday/ Chourio/Merrill numbered out of 10 sold for $10,000. I count over 35 recent sales of 2024 Topps Chrome Update cards for north of $5,000, with many more north of $1,000.

These are the toughest pulls in the product, though, and the vast majority of boxes aren’t going to contain close to $700 worth of value.

So, should you buy a box of 2024 Topps Chrome to chase a rare Paul Skenes card? If your hobby budget allows and you like that chase, and don’t mind the disappointment, go for it, but here’s a taste of rarer Skenes cards that have sold recently for that $700 box price:

  • Green RayWave Refractor /99 (raw)
  • Celebración Gold Refractor /50 (PSA 9)
  • Aqua Wave Refractor Auto /199 (raw)
  • Purple Speckle Auto /299 (raw)
  • Aqua Refractor /199 (PSA 10)
Finding Value in Singles

Some really nice low-pop autographs of players like Jackson Holliday, Elly De La Cruz, and other top names are also available in the price range.

If you’re willing to move beyond Update and into other years, the options within that price range become nearly endless. Do an eBay search for the type of cards that would make you excited about and set the price range to $650-700 to get a taste of what is possible.

This is of course true of either ultra-modern, junk wax, or vintage cards.  Just as an example, let’s look at one of my favorite cards of all-time, the 1956 Topps Jackie Robinson. This is the final playing days card of the iconic color barrier breaking Hall of Famer. For $700, you can find the card in a really nice PSA 4 and possibly even a PSA 5.

Finding Value in Singles

What’s your Take on Buying Singles vs. Breaking Wax?

So, if breaking wax is your thing, and you understand the odds and can tolerate the risk, go for it. As long as you’re staying within your budget and being a good hobby citizen, there’s no wrong way to hobby.

But hopefully this article has reminded you of the alternate approach of buying singles. While it may provide less of a chance at an epic hit, it certainly provides more regular value and return on investment.

What’s your take on breaking wax vs. buying singles? Are you a ripping junkie? Love your singles? What are you buying for singles? Let us know your approach to breaking vs. singles at CardLines on X.

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Mike D.

Mike D

Mike D. has collected cards for over 35 years, since he bought his first pack of Topps at the corner store in 1987. His fandom,  collecting interests, and contributions to Cardlines center around baseball in general and the Baseball Hall of Fame specifically.

Mike's collecting focus is centered on graded cards, mostly rookie cards, of Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers. Lately, he's been enjoying dabbling in graded minor league cards. A collector/investor with a "buy and hold" approach, Mike takes the long-term view with his collection.

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