2022 Panini Prizm Draft Picks Collegiate Basketball is set to drop on February 17th and has been pre-selling between $180-$200 this past week.
Sure, it’s not ideal that a collegiate product is coming out this late, especially with products like NBA Hoops already on the market. But the late timing does present a few interesting investing opportunities.
Plus there are a couple of inserts debuting this season that has collectors excited about this product.
In this article, I’ll cover those investment opportunities, the new inserts, and let you know which under-the-radar rookies might be worth a buy.
Prizm Draft Picks enters its 4th year in the basketball card market, after previously being exclusively a football line. It debuted in Zion’s draft year when Panini was sensing growth in the hobby and was likely trying to cash in on Zion’s generational hype.
The product initially faced a lukewarm reception, with many complaining that it was an unnecessary addition to an oversaturated market. In the years since, however, it has carved out a niche as one of the more exciting collegiate products on the market.
Each hobby box will contain 4 packs with 10 cards each.
The breakdown will be nearly identical to last year’s with 4 Autos, 4 Silver Prizms, 8 Parallels, and 4 Inserts. However, this year we will see 4 additional inserts that are guaranteed to be Rookie Variations or Rated Prospect cards.
That won’t take away from the other insert cards, so this year’s product will have 24 non-base cards instead of only 20. That’s nice to see, especially in a year when we’re seeing other products featuring less hits, not more.
Panini had an auction for its FOTL boxes a few days ago, which was conducted in their typical descending auction format. In this format, they start selling the product at $300 and decrease the sales price every 15 minutes until the product sells out, or it reaches its floor price of $200.
As it turns out, the FOTL boxes did not sell out at the $200 mark. This is interesting to note because many regular boxes are currently listed on eBay at $200.
If buyers didn’t have much interest in the FOTL boxes at $200, despite the additional two Shimmer Parallels, it’s a strong indication that the regular boxes will end up being valued for much less than they are now.
It’s also worth noting that at the time of publishing, last year’s boxes are going for ~$100. I think there’s a pretty decent chance that’s where we see this product fall as well.
For anyone trying to buy and hold this product long-term, I’d strongly caution against buying it at the currently listed eBay prices. If you’re looking to buy this product in time for March Madness or the NBA playoffs, then you’ll need to buy it now.
But if you can wait, it’s almost certain to drop in the coming months.
Panini has released mock-ups on a few of its new inserts: Letter of Intent and Manga.
On the surface, the Letter of Intent card doesn’t seem too special – it uses neutral colors, a large player image, and has a name that plays on the product’s collegiate theme.
But what’s big about this card is that it will feature players who are still in college, such as Baylor’s Keyonte George, who’s on the mock-up below. Draft Picks hasn’t done this before and I’m very interested to see how the market values these cards.
On one hand, they aren’t going to be considered rookie cards since the players aren’t professionals (yet). College player cards that we’ve seen from NCAA football releases haven’t been super valuable. But on the other hand, college fans can be diehards, and March Madness can dramatically impact a player’s reputation.
Every year there are players like Jarett Culver and Davion Mitchell who fly up the draft boards due to a great tournament. Usually, we have to wait until the following year to see them on cards. But this year, the tournament’s high risers can be sold off at peak value in March and April.
As the name suggests, these cards will be designed with a manga theme. For those unfamiliar, Manga is a style of comic created in Japan, and its artistic style is very distinct from western comics.
These cards have already debuted in Football, NASCAR, Soccer releases and were wildly popular, so it’s not surprising to see Panini include them in the basketball release as well.
Because of the comic theme, there is a natural link to Donruss’ Net Marvels card. The biggest difference is that the Manga card is a SSP case hit so the value will be much higher.
A few from the FOTL boxes have already hit eBay and most are priced at over $100.
I am a huge fan of the style of these cards, and I think the artist did a phenomenal job. The Chet mock-up is particularly great – I love how it captures his trademark lankiness mid-jam, with an expression that is equal parts fierce and hilarious.
A few of the other stand-out inserts are Stained Glass and Color Blast; a few popular inserts that we’ve seen in other Panini products.
These two lean into the trend of bright and clashing colors, and will be fun chases for collectors who appreciate that aesthetic. Both are SSP hits, coming out to one per case.
This a pretty standard Stained Glass card, featuring a Trae Young action shot set against a stain-glassed background.
Color blast is one of the most popular inserts across all sports. This sleek Tatum mock-up looks great, with the colored smoke looking very vibrant, and the Duke logo featured in the bottom right corner.
The 2022-23 NBA Hoops Hobby Box hobby box will be released on February 17th. Many retail boxes have been listed at $200, but in the past few days we’ve seen a few going for as low as $180 on eBay.
Here’s what each hobby box will contain:
And here’s what Panini has released about the card breakdown inside:
In addition to the hobby box, Panini will be offering two other buying options: the choice box and the H2 box.
The choice box will contain 8 cards (1 pack) with the following breakdown:
The H2 box will contain 25 cards (5 packs) with the following breakdown:
Here’s a lowdown on recent trends in Prizm Draft Picks wax, marquee rookies and autos, and a few under-the-radar players (both collegians and pros) that are likely to be on this year’s checklist who are worth an investment before post-season basketball.
As I briefly mentioned above, I’m not a fan of buying this box as a long-term hold at the current $200 price point. I”m pretty confident we’ll see that number come down (possibly cut in half) over the next few months.
Here’s a look at what the last few years of wax are currently selling for:
|2023 Selling Price
Now, if this price does drop, I think Prizm Draft Picks becomes more appealing as a long-term hold. Strong inserts make this a quality product, and if you believe in the 2022 draft class, we could see the value rise (after an initial fall).
So keep an eye out for the price here, and consider buying low if it gets into the low $ 100s.
Typically in this section, I like to take a look at the product’s marquee rookie cards and see how well they fare in the months and years after their release.
Last week I did a comparison of the 21-22 Donruss Rated Rookie to the Panini Prizm Rookie (not the collegiate version) and the NBA Hoops Rookie to see how well the three have maintained value since last August Spoiler: the Prizm Rookie blew the other two out of the water.
Unfortunately, it’s pretty hard to assess the long-term viability of Prizm Draft Picks’ best rookie cards. Unlike the non-collegiate Prizms, these ones are not very valuable. Even the ever-so-popular Silver Prizm rookies from last year’s top guys are only selling between $1-3. Any gains you make on that type of investment wouldn’t even cover shipping.
The only cards in this product that have any value are the SSP case hits and the autos. Unfortunately, those cards are pretty rare, and there isn’t enough sales data to extract any trends.
So while I can’t offer any real insights on these cards’ value over time, I can give you a gauge on what some of last year’s numbered autos are going for:
|Most Recent Selling Price (eBay)
|Jonathan Kuminga Prizm Draft Pick RC Auto #/29
|CADE CUNNINGHAM Auto Red RC 11/49
|Alperen Sengun 21/29 Auto Purple Ice Rookie RC
|Franz Wagmer Red Prizm Rookie 31/49
As you can see a lot of the cards top out between $50-$150, meaning you’d need two high-quality rookie autos just to break even. With the size of the checklist (and the obscurity of many of its players), I wouldn’t count on that, giving you another reason not to buy this product at $200. Not as a hold, not as a rip.
The playoffs are a huge value amplifier. Jordan Poole’s value skyrocketed up from $39 to $180 (Silver Prizm PSA 10) during the Warriors’ title run last postseason, before plummeting back to $43 this season.
About a month ago, I listed 3 NBA rookies that made the most sense to invest in before the playoffs. I’d stand firm on each of those three guys, but I’m probably a little lower on Mathurin. The Pacers have had some untimely injuries and Mathurin has backslid a bit, so he probably isn’t the best candidate for a playoff bump.
With this product, however, we get a chance to invest in college players which means there could be a big March Madness bump too! We still don’t know the full list of collegiate players that are going to be included, but I’ve seen people reporting that they pulled Keyonte George autos, so we know that there will be some current college players with valuable cards.
While plenty of top prospects are on good teams, Brandon Miller checks all the boxes. Alabama is #1 in the nation, and Miller is a guy who likes the ball in his hands.
The basketball card market values scorers and Miller is as pure a scorer as you can find in the NCAA. He’s shooting 46% (!) on threes and can light up in a hurry. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also a top-5 NBA prospect on a lot of people’s boards.
Edey is a 7’4 giant who’s been putting up eye-popping numbers for the #3 ranked Purdue Boilermakers.
While he isn’t a bonafide NBA prospect (many currently have him going late first round), he’s a player who will quickly become a fan favorite if Purdue goes on a run due to his memorable size and unique game. Because of his relatively low prospect ranking I’m not positive he’ll make the Prizm Draft Picks checklist, but if he does, he could see a surge in value during March Madness.
Williams is one of the only rookies who’s really played well in the second half of the season, as the OKC wing has worked his way into the Thunder’s starting line-up. That is, mind you, the current #10 seed OKC Thunder. If the season ended today, they’d be in the play-in.
I don’t really believe that WIlliams has a huge value upside these playoffs, mostly because the chances of OKC getting bumped really early are high. But I do think Williams is a solid guy to buy low on now regardless. Because he’s in Oklahoma he isn’t getting the attention he would in a big market, but this guy is going to be a stud in the future.
And hey, if you believe the Thunder can make it through the play-in tourney, Williams has a chance to explode in a playoff game or two, which could result in a nice spike in value.
Prizm Draft Pick cards occupy an interesting place in the hobby. While many people are skeptical of collegiate products in general, the Prizm brand has a loyal following. $200 is almost certainly too much to pay for this product, but we should see that price drop in the following months.
For fans of college basketball, I think there is a lot of value here. The Manga and Letter of Intent inserts are bound to be very popular, and it allows you to collect highly rated prospects a year early.
It’s important to note that silver prizms in the product are not nearly as valuable as real silver prizms, but the SSP hits and autos can still be fan chases and moderately valuable cards.
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