Is There Anything To Like About 2023 Panini Flawless Football?

Flawless has been one of the most successful high-end products Panini has ever created. It is best known for its beautiful and classy rookie patch autos and the jewels in many cards.

However, the release never quite caught on as universally for football as it did for basketball. I’m not sure why. With gridiron fans, it seems that National Treasures has achieved high-end primacy.

Does this year’s release do anything to change that? Or is it too late anyway, with the rights for the NFL set to move to Topps? Find out in our handy dandy 2023 Panini Flawless Football review.  

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History of Panini Flawless Football

One of the reasons Flawless is taken more seriously in basketball is because the franchise appeared first for that sport. The initial appearance of the product was 2012-13 Panini Flawless Basketball, which shocked the hobby with its outlandish price, $1,250.

It first jumped to football with the release of the 2014 Panini Flawless Football. That box included seven auto cards, two jumbo patch cards, and a base card or parallel embossed with some gem.

The boxes had ten cards, a deficient number for the time but far more normal today. The release was also remarkable then, as none of the cards were more common than a /25. The autos are always on-card and are known for being crisp and beautiful. A final touch was that it came in a briefcase instead of a box—very exclusive.

Flawless quickly became an essential part of the high-end market and remained so. Over its decade of existence, the product underwent few changes.

The number of autos went down from seven to six in 2015. Then, in 2019, the collation of base cards, parallels, and patch cards changed. It was now six autos and a four of any combination of the other items. A year later, Panini put out the first FOTL box for Flawless.

Meanwhile, the importance of NFL Shield RPAs increased and became the most sought-after element in the product, though they were never quite as beloved as the NBA Logoman cards.

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2023 Panini Flawless Football release date

Flawless has always been late. The earliest versions came out in April, about two months after the Super Bowl. But things have only gotten worse, as they have for so many Panini releases.

By 2021, it was coming out in May. Then, in 2022, we saw it get pulled until September 20, 2023, a few weeks into the 2023 season.

2023 Panini Flawless Football dropped November 27, 2024. That takes us almost three months into the NFL season. Honestly, that is a ridiculous delay. We aren’t talking about an also run of the sports card release season. Instead, this is a staple of the high-end side of Panini releases.

Unfortunately, it is probably too late to hope that Panini gets their act together. But it would be nice to see a better date next year.

2023 Panini Flawless Football formats

Like all super high-end releases, Flawless has no retail formats. You can choose between a regular hobby box and an FOTL version.

The hobby boxes come in two per case, each containing a self-contained briefcase. They may be expensive, but at least they look super cool.

Hobby Box

• 6 Autographs
• 2 Memorabilia Cards
• 1 Gem Cards
• 1 Additional Memorabilia or Gem Cards
• 2 boxes per case
• A box presells for $4,599.95
• A case presells for $8,999.95

FOTL

• 1 FOTL-Exclusive Bronze Patch Autograph #’d/6
• 1 FOTL-Exclusive Aquamarine Gem #’d/2
• At least 5 Additional Autographs
• At least 2 Memorabilia Cards
• 1 Additional Memorabilia or Gem Card per box, on average!
• The Dutch Auction will take place soon, and the bidding will start at $8,000

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2023 Panini Flawless Football pros

The biggest pro is that the aesthetics of the cards and the clean on-card autos mean they will always be among the most valuable cards of their type. Indeed, they will often vastly outperform all other autos for the player.

Regarding RPAs, getting a Flawless is one of the safest bets you can place on an emerging player. Of course, that is only when the checklist includes the players you want to invest in. But more on that in the cons.

Flawless has trademark crip-on-card autos that rank among the most attractive in the hobby. Thanks to the look and prestige of the Flawless brand, these items are good values on the market. We also love the briefcase, a unique and attractive packaging choice.

Finally, the price for the 2023 Panini Flawless Release is somewhat lower than it used to be—or even significantly lower.

The 2022 release Dutch auction for the FOTL started at $17,000 with a floor of $8,000. Now, the ceiling is $8,000. That is undoubtedly an improvement, but as we will see, there is a catch.

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2023 Panini Flawless Football cons

The biggest con for this set is that it is so huge that it overshadows the entire product. Because Fanatics managed to get CJ Stroud and Bryce Young to sign exclusive auto contracts with them, their signed cards will not appear in 2023 Panini Flawless Football.

That is a severe blow to this product. People traditionally buy these boxes to get a shot at the RPAs of the most prominent players in the rookie class. Unfortunately, that is impossible in this case. While paying this much for a box, the slight chance of pulling the best RPAs was always questionable.

But now Panini expects you to pay $4,600 to have zero chance of getting the most significant card. It makes the entire box pointless. I know that sounds harsh, but I don’t make the rules.

That brings us to the constant problem that Flawless collectors face. The boxes are priced incredibly high. That was always a feature and not a bug for this release. $1,250 was much money for the inaugural box; sometimes, these have gone for well over $10,000.

The higher the box price, the less chance you have to recoup on the cards, at least theoretically. And generally, if you did not score the top RPA, you were unlikely to get anywhere close to breaking even.

Worse Than Buying A Lottery Ticket?

One Blowout Forums user compared buying a box unfavorably to a lottery ticket. I found this demonstration quite instructive:

“Lottery tickets you’re paying small amounts and buying for a chance to make countless millions. You can hit the lottery on Flawless football or NT football. How much do you win? Is there a single card in 2022 Flawless worth $100k? Certainly, nothing even remotely close to a million or retirement money. On the basketball products over the past few years with 7 figure cards, at least you knew that a lottery hit was possible. 2022 football makes no sense. There is a 1 6 figure card for all 2022 football games. The Purdy NT 1/1 which is worth what maybe $150k right now? Nothing that is even close to a million or more.

The people buying into Flawless breaks probably spend so much on breaks in a year that they could hit the Purdy Flawless RPA 1/1 and still flush back more than 50% of what the card sells for towards losses in other breaks.

At $18k per hobby case, how many cases will see a profit? 1 out of 200? That’s before accounting for breakers upping that cost to more like $22k-$23k per case. There will be cases that pull Purdy RPAs and still lose money. Any case that doesn’t have Purdy or an insane 1/1 is a loser.”

That is why some hobby enthusiasts have called it the “briefcase of regrets.” Even that theoretical chance is notably absent here for reasons we have already discussed.

2023 Panini Flawless Football checklist

We are sorry that the checklist is not good without RPAs or any other autos of the biggest names in the 2023 NFL rookie cohort. And that is putting it mildly.

But still, here are the details. Last year, The base set was 115 cards long and numbered to /20. We don’t have all the information for this release yet, but we can expect something similar. The base here is a bit strange, as they are very rare, thus increasing their price. The cards also include gems.

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But the real attractions here are the autos and RPAs.

Review Of The Rookie Class

Despite many misgivings, the 2023 rookie class ended up being a good one. CJ Stroud was the biggest star among them, though his reputation has dimmed somewhat since. Puka Nacua broke the receiving record for a rookie.

Meanwhile, Bryce Young was the biggest name but did not meet expectations, making some doubt that he has what it takes. There is plenty of depth here with names like Jalen Carter, Sam Laporta, and Devon Witherspoon.

But as we have discussed, Fanatics have gotten exclusive deals with some of the biggest names.

Review of autos

Autos are what Flawless is all about. So, what offerings does the set have in 2023?

The Rookie Patch autos

We have talked a lot about what will be missing from these cards. But the borderless design for these cards is nothing short of fantastic. These remain some of the most beautiful RPAs available on the market.

Shields

This release includes a nice selection of shield cards, including some RPAs. But perhaps the most awesome shield cards available are the Quad NFL Shield Autographs, a booklet with at least four autos.

Flawless Cuts

These die-cut autos go off the beaten path and include some interesting ideas for autos. For example, the mock-up Panini released is of an Al Davis signed check. Fantastic.

2023 Panini Flawless Football value

It is often hard to get any value out of these boxes because of their high cost. The 2023 iteration is also very expensive, but less so. Does that mean getting some value out of it will be more possible?

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Wax

What happens after you buy a Flawless box for a gazillion bucks? Does the value mature and make the purchase worthwhile?

All the recent boxes are selling for more than the price of the current one. That seems like a good sign until you remember that the best RPAs will not be in the box.

Singles

The idea behind Flawless is that the very expensive box makes up for it with the massive hits you can get. That begs the question, how big are the biggest cards?

The best cards rarely cross the $20,000 line. Considering how high some of these boxes sell for, that raises obvious questions.

There is little upside to being a box of this in the past. There is a better chance at the current price, but only if you believe one of the present autos is worth it.  

Final word on the 2023 Panini Flawless Football

The latest Flawless release appears to deliver on much of what we expect from these. The design is gorgeous, with beautiful on-card autos, booklets, and the like. It doesn’t help that this release is so late that it is coming out in the middle of the following season.

But that is not a release killer. However, there is no getting past the fact that the biggest rookies we are all looking for won’t have autographed cards here. That is why the price is much lower than it usually is.

But with very little possibility of hitting a huge card, that low price isn’t low enough. Fanatics’ attempt to sabotage the final Panini releases has succeeded. It is hard to justify paying several thousand dollars for this release.

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