Editorial: There Are Mounting Problems With 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball

2024 Topps Chrome will not be released until July 17, 2024, but there are already potential problems. There was great excitement around this release, considering how many great baseball rookies have been coming out recently.

But that enthusiasm has cratered. Sellers are reporting problems preselling the product. People are not buying at anywhere near the number you would expect. Why?

There are many problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball, making it seem like this release will be particularly problematic. Why? We have all the answers in our overview of the mounting problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball.

The problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball retail prices

The prices of blaster boxes have shot up, with each box now selling for $40 from Fanatics—OK, $39.99.

This is a significant increase from the usual $20-25 price point we’ve come to expect. As a result, the final cost when purchased from Walmart or Target, including taxes, could be closer to $50.

And what do you get for this inflated price? The exact number of cards and the same number of packs, and no improvement in quality. We will soon discover that the quality seems to have taken a hit. There is no justification whatsoever for this sudden, massive price increase.

With blasters’ unprecedented price, shelves are likely to be overflowing with Topps Chrome. The product is being printed in massive quantities, raising concerns about whether the demand will justify this inflated price, posing a potential buyer risk.

Also, to make things worse, when Fanatics first sold these boxes online, it said in the description that every box would come with an auto inside. This is, of course, not true.

So, upon initial release, many people bought these overpriced boxes based on the false premise that they would include an auto. It makes sense: with such a price increase, you might think there would be a corresponding increase in value. But you would be very wrong.

The problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Hobby box prices

The staggering increase in blaster prices has left many of us reeling. However, the prices for hobby boxes, in contrast, are more of a wild card.

While undeniably high, the $209.95 pre-order price tag on 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball did not shock many. This unpredictability should serve as a warning to all potential buyers, urging them to proceed with caution.

However, a look back at 2023 Topps Chrome Baseball pre-order prices shows those boxes sold for $130. That is an increase of 61%, precisely the same increase that we see in retail. Therefore, Fanatics is not giving you any cheap options this year.

Now, let’s break down the price per card. A hobby box, priced at $21, contains 96 cards, which translates to $2.18 per card. Remember the days when a pack of cards cost less than a dollar? Those were the days. How does this compare to retail?

A blaster, priced at $40, contains 28 cards, making it $1.4 per card. It’s still a hefty price, but a bit less. And the monster boxes? They’re the most expensive, at $2.50 per card.

Doing the math

Of course, the cards in Hobby and Monster Boxes are better overall and arguably worth the difference. But this is now a costly product, considering it is not high-end. One Blowout Forums user did the math, and it isn’t pretty:

“Topps Chrome had 5 autos with a 76 rookie auto checklist and a 204 base card checklist back then. You could get a jumbo for $230. At 8 boxes a case, you could get auto. You were looking for 1 in 2 cases. With a 154 auto checklist, you’re looking at 1 in 7 cases at $390 per box. In 2021, jumbos were $275 with 5 autos. That’s $55 per auto. In 2024, it’s $390 for 3 autos or $130. That’s a 236% increase in 2 years. Inflation hasn’t gone up that much. I guess that’s a start on 10X the hobby.

I used to buy breaks, but those days ended with this. You buy breaks, hoping to get one of a couple of guys you want.

But, with a 1 in 7 jumbo case odds, singles are the way to go. It was the first time since 2018 that I had not bought a jumbo box, either.

This sucks because I enjoyed it. It’s just not fun when you know going in that you’ll lose 90% of your money. I hope people aren’t buying this and that Topps realizes that the prices are too high for future releases.”

We wish this were an exaggeration, but it isn’t. The 2024 Topps Chrome release presents horrendous value. We would tell you to avoid it, but there is reason to believe it is a sign of things to come.

The problem with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Retail odds

There are some guaranteed cards in your 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball retail products. And thank goodness for that because there is very little else you can expect.

Here are some examples with notable hits you may want to pursue:

The numbers speak for themselves. You will have difficulty landing any parallels or autos in blasters or monster boxes. The rates are abysmal and far worse than we are used to. When you consider that, along with the much higher prices, the reduction in value is considerable.

Fanatics appear to be making their basters intentionally weaker than in previous years. We have to wonder why.

The problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Retail release dates

Fanatics habitually releases the retail and hobby formats on the same day. However, the 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball release is doing things differently.

The hobby boxes will be released on July 17th, and the delight boxes will be released two days later. Meanwhile, the retail stuff will only be available on August 7^th. That is a strategic decision. Coupled with the increase in the price of retail products, it feels almost like they are intentionally stifling the popularity of retail.

Think about it. By the time retail products arrive, this release will seem somewhat stale. In addition, the prices will make this no longer fresh release even less appealing for retail hunters.

That policy seems designed to encourage hobby box purchases at the expense of the retail release.

The problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball checklist size

Topps Chrome Baseball is a product that traditionally combines the Series 1 and Series 2 checklist and keeps only the best players. That has been one of its selling points.

While the more significant flagship releases have 350 cards per Series, the Chrome release had 220 overall. They were more select cards. That raised your chances of pulling a sound base card and a parallel of a big star or rookie.

However, this year, Topps increased the checklist to 300, an increase of 80 cards. That means the entire product has been watered down significantly.

As one Blowout Forum user observed, “I choose to rip Chrome so I don’t have thousands of base cards sitting around, but with the expanded checklist, Chrome is becoming more like a flagship but more expensive.”

That also influences your chances of getting a good buyback. One of the best things about the 2023 Topps Chrome release was the possibility of getting robust buyback options.

If you have cards from the two MVPs, you could send them to Topps in exchange for $20 for a base card and between $40-200 for refractors, depending on their rarity.

The new expanded checklist would make that more difficult. They are rerunning the MVP buyback program in 2024, and this time, the number of buybacks will be lower because of the diluted checklist.

That is one of the myriad ways the new release is unsuitable for consumers. That applies equally to retail and hobby.

What do all the problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball mean?

People are waiting to buy 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball, so the first restock may do well. But the combination of the price, the late date, and the bad odds will make people wary of buying blasters and monster boxes.

We are now in a hobby era whereby every problem immediately becomes common knowledge through the magic of social media. People are already talking about this issue now.

Once the many customers who open these boxes and get nothing out of them start complaining from every available platform, it will put many people off buying into 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball.

Many would-be customers already say they will sit this one out or at least look for the cards they want to collect as singles on eBay.

The bottom line is that Fanatics is trying to make it more challenging to make money back on the hobby boxes. There is no question that the older long odds of making a profit here are lower between the lower odds and higher prices.

Right now, that will cause a lot of people to skip this release. But what happens if and when all the releases are treated this way? Are we so far away from that?

Is 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball a total flop?

No. Not even close. Baseball is producing so many great young players, and Topps has included almost every prospect you can think of in this checklist. The one major exception is Paul Skenes, the pitching sensation they save for later releases.

But other than that, this is a beautiful checklist complete with top-notch talent. You have Jackson Holliday, Jared Jones, Jordan Lawlar, and Jackson Chourio, to name just a few. This isn’t really because of Fanatics, but baseball provides so much great talent that it becomes difficult to pass over this release.

Since Chrome cards are generally worth more than paper equivalents, you will not want to skip over this critical release because of the abovementioned problems. Therefore, you will want to stick to hobby boxes to rip.

But more likely, the best option before you buy singles is to buy them off eBay or COMC. It will almost certainly give you far better value for your money.

But I would advise avoiding any of the wax for this release. Not only is it a bad deal, but you will also be rewarding Topps for driving up the prices in a highly unreasonable manner.

Final word on the mounting problems with 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball

I’ve addressed the dangers of Fanatics becoming a monopoly in the card business numerous times, but the situation is unfolding. It’s not just a caution anymore; it’s a real-time observation.

The economic principle that monopolies lead to inefficiencies, lack of innovation, and higher prices is starkly evident in the 2024 Topps Chrome Baseball release.

Just think that Fanatics has yet to take over all the prominent sports and fully cement its domination over the hobby. It is already making its releases far less attractive than they were just a year ago.

There is little value to be had in buying any of these boxes. However, it is worth paying particular attention to what they do to the retail releases. Fanatics like to own the entire chain of command, from creating the cards to selling them directly to the consumer.

They are hostile to hobby shops and have a desire to micromanage their affairs. Is the way they have watered down the retail releases an attempt to weaken these outlets’ place in the hobby? Will we see retail become intentionally less desirable? Cardlines will be watching this concerning development closely.