
Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory, and we are in the age of fake news.
With a story as big as someone pulling the Skenes 1/1 card, you expect there to be all sorts of theories. And the hobby social media folks have not disappointed.
The theories abound. But are they completely misguided?
Honestly, there are a lot of things here that don’t add up. There is a serious concern that PSA is not telling the entire truth and that it sat on the information that the card was pulled in order to increase hype and sales.
We will unpack them all in our overview of the Skenes Debut Patch conspiracy theory mess.
The official news came out on January 21 that the Paul Skenes 1/1 Debut Patch card that had obsessed the entire hobby had been pulled by an 11-year-old who lives in Los Angeles.
The individual did not go public, which makes sense for someone that age. Parents should not put their kids front and center in a media frenzy. However, that has made some people doubt that this person exists.
Every time a big card is pulled, people start speculating about the “real story” behind it. Usually, big breakers get the most valuable cards. Therefore, the theories focus on how they got backdoored, and regular people cannot hit the biggest cards.
This time, we have the opposite issue. People began speculating that a child could never afford this product, especially since prices have skyrocketed recently since the debut of patches.
The other element that raised people’s suspicion was that the card was pulled off-camera. We are so used to the biggest cards being pulled by breakers and influencers that it has become weird and unusual for anyone to get a big card in private, the old-school way.
The hobby has a significant dispute over whether it is a good idea to grade a 1/1 card. But no one is surprised that this particular card has been graded. It was walked through the most expensive level of grading, where you get the card back on the spot.
The PSA Instagram account reported, “Bringing you another look at one of 2024’s biggest chases, fresh from the grading room with a coveted dual PSA 10 grade. The Paul Skenes MLB Rookie Debut Patch Auto 1/1 was pulled as a redemption, then fulfilled by Topps and delivered to its owner before coming to PSA.”
Meanwhile, the President of PSA posted on X, “It was a super cool day at the PSA office yesterday when the Paul Skenes MLB debut patch 1/1 was dropped off with me for walkthrough grading service and left a few hours later as a PSA 10/10. Congrats to the card owner! What a pull and memory!”
That raised some eyebrows. One commenter on Instagram noted, “None of this makes any sense. The card was supposedly pulled on Christmas morning…so you’re saying the redemption was redeemed at Topps, and Topps sent the redemption, then the family sent it to PSA, and it’s already graded…all of that in less than a month? Anyone who has ever redeemed a card from Topps knows this is complete nonsense.”
Another wrote, “So I pulled a 1/1 from Topps Triple Threads of the Seattle Mariners Deca Auto/Relic a couple of days after release, immediately redeemed it, and it’s been pending for weeks.
This redemption is pulled (with no pictures of the kid with the cards or the local card shop he pulled it from), redeemed from Topps, and graded by PSA within 3 weeks. We seriously need to consider a class action lawsuit… The shadiness, price gouging and complete lack of transparency is telling.”
Of course, there is the question of the grade. Some are suspicious that it got a 10. However, as explained below, Topps had the card on hand and probably protected it very well. So if a well-protected card doesn’t get a 10, what will?
A third party brought in the PSA submission. The rumor floating around is that this was a Fanatics representative. This fueled the suspicion that Fanatics is far more involved in pulling the card than they are letting on.
However, there is a simple explanation for that. Topps has a “White Glove Redemptions” policy for 1/1 Debut Patches. Topps states they have all of the MLB Debut Patch cards in their inventory; no need to wait for the player to sign.
That means they held the card when the redemption was pulled. Considering its importance, it is easy to imagine that they volunteered to deliver the card to PSA.
Topps published a picture of a journal entry made by the 11-year-old who pulled the card. The writing is, of course, terrible. Very similar to my handwriting at that age and too close to my handwriting today for comfort. Anyway, this is what it says:
“It was November 13, 2024, and Topps had released the 2024 Chrome Update. It was $200, which was a lot, but considering the players and rookies, it was fair. I started begging my mom for it for Christmas. Dad was at work, and my mom was leaving soon. Me and my mom left for school and I knew people would raise the prices. So I went into full beg mode. My mom said she would get it (victory), but her work was so busy that she forgot to get it. When my parents got home I was super sad. But they said the prices would drop on Black Friday. Fast forward to Black Friday…THE PRICES DID NOT DROP – infinite rage. One sec, so now the price was like $350. They said I would have to get something else, but they could tell I was really sad – very, very sad. When I was at school, they found a hobby box for $320. Which is still a ton! But since they are awesome they got the box. They told me when I got home from school and I was so exciteddddd!!!
Some skeptics have noted that kids writing in journals seems very 20th-century. In addition, the timeline is particular, and there are references to prices everywhere. It looks corporate in its logic. Many did not find it particularly convincing.
The journal entry continues: “Fast forward to Christmas…first I woke up at like 4:00 AM and woke up my brother (whoops). We wait until 6:30 AM and we woke up our parents. The first present we opened was the hobby box and my brother got a big Lego. I opened 3 packs and got some cool cards. Then we passed around some more presents. I opened two more packs, and on the second, I got the Paul Skenes redemption card. I quote, “hey dad, I got the Paul Skenes redemption card.”
There is a bit more, but this is the important part. According to this version, the card was pulled on Christmas morning and was a redemption.
The fact that this was a redemption has raised a lot of eyebrows. According to this timeline, the card was pulled on December 25th, and within a few weeks, the family had received the card back.
The Topps website states, “Please allow up to 15 weeks for processing when you fulfill a redemption.”
Anyone who has tried to fulfill a redemption will tell you that is somewhat optimistic. And this is during the holidays when people are not working at full steam.
Only two days passed between the publication of the fact that the card had been pulled and the card returning to the hands of Fanatics. That may not reflect the actual timeline of when Fanatics knew, which would explain the short time that passed. But it also leaves Fanatics open to charges of manipulation.
Another important part of this journal entry was the child’s statement, “I am 11 years old, so pulling this card is a dream come true.”
That is why some of us were surprised to hear that he is selling the card at an auction. Was it his dream to sell the card after pulling it? Did his parents convince him? We don’t know.
He is selling it with Fanatics Collect, an auction house that is not necessarily the most prestigious in the world. Still, obviously, it is in Fanatics’ interest to pump it up.
The company also announced that “𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐅𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐋𝐀 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬.” That follows on the heels of Fanatics announcing a partnership with LA sports teams to create a line of merchandise called the LA Strong collection.
This fact has, of course, fed a feeding frenzy of suspicion and conspiracy. It all seemed too neat and convenient.
We may never know the true story here, but this could have gone down in two ways. The first route is that this is a wholly invented story, and this kid does not exist.
It seems like a significant risk in case it gets out, but it would be a brilliant marketing ploy. According to the most extreme conspiracy theory version, the card never left the Topps factory.
However, the more likely option is for Topps to take some actual events and milk them for marketing purposes. Some elements here make very little sense as an organic narrative. The journal entry is cute and hilarious but does not read like an eleven-year-old doing stream-of-consciousness.
It is too focused, and the price justification seems on the nose. Meanwhile, the choice of Fanatics Collect is what you would expect if Fanatics were handling this. In addition, the timeline for the redemption does not ring true.
Fanatics took charge of the situation early on and arranged the facts to suit their narrative.
One element that has not been discussed as fully as it should be is the timing of the pull. We are told the card was pulled on Christmas, and the redemption was fulfilled quickly. But the news of the pull was not made public until January 21. Why?
Fanatics will likely say that they did not know. However, they had a good reason to delay the release of the information. The boxes were selling for incredibly high prices, and the chase for the card was great for the company.
It would make much sense if they sat on the information for some time. That also means that the card may have been pulled before Christmas, and that information was changed to make the narrative more compelling.
There is a very good chance that Topps sat on the information for a month and only made the information public when PSA was about to garde the card. At that point they could not hide it anymore. This is a serious problem for transparency.
Indeed, Fanatics posted about this throughout January and used it to promote the 2024 Topps Chrome Update. Did they really not know the card had been pulled?
If they withheld that information, it could be grounds for a lawsuit from people who bought the product after it was pulled.
The problem is that we cannot trust when we are told a card has been pulled. That is an issue if we buy products to hit a particular card.
Fanatics, big breakers, and other actors are interested in delaying the news so they can continue to sell boxes and breaking spots and enjoy the hype. Especially when a card is this big, this does nothing to add to the already fraying trust in the hobby.
I do not doubt that some official narratives on how this card was pulled are untrue. I bet that the Christmas pull and the journal entry are the weak links. Either way, this was a master class in Fanatics’ marketing abilities.
Nothing sells better than a good story, and this is a fantastic one. Their goal is to make money, and they are very good at it. They are also undoubtedly growing the hobby.
This story made headlines all over mainstream media. Fanatics is making collecting cards more mainstream than ever before. It is also suitable for baseball, which is making more headlines than it has in years thanks to this clever marketing.
The conspiracy theorists probably have some valid points on this one. It seems at least partially manufactured. But they are also pretty annoying.
They complain that it’s rigged when a big breaker gets a card. They complain that the system is rigged when an 11-year-old kid pulls a card. Would anything seem real to them? One wonders.
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