2023 Origins Football has arrived with one pack of seven cards and a deep rookie class to chase. But should you?
In this article, we review Origins and tell you everything you need to know about this football staple.
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So what can you expect from Panini Origins Football 2023? A lot, here is a quick look:
PSA before we continue: Panini will not have autographs of Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, or Will Levis. They signed an exclusive deal with Fanatics and don’t feature autographs in Panini products.
Origins is a product based on the idea of storytelling. And, for rookie cards in particular, there’s something charming about leaning into a player’s “origins.”
And that’s the driving theme here. Origins started in 2018 as a brand with a heavy focus on rookies — almost half of the set are rookie cards. It’s also usually one of the first, if not the first, annual releases featuring these rookies in their NFL uniforms.
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The Origin set boasts a visually stunning design complemented by a generous inclusion of rookie autographs. As always, this year’s aesthetic is inspired by the aurora borealis, reflected in the base cards through a striking interplay of vibrant colors against a dark backdrop. The box, even, features the night sky.
It’s a rookie-driven product. Almost half of the checklist features rookies, providing a prime opportunity to begin collecting the 2023 draft picks.
Noteworthy rookies include C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Puka Nakua, and many more — a refreshing 180 from last year’s week rookie class.
And, as much as it’s rookie-driven, it’s also autograph-driven. Unlike a box of Prizm, your two best cards from origins will almost always be the autographs.
That’s particularly problematic this year given the lack of 1st round talent that did not sign. That alone significantly hurts the value of this box.
Each box is anticipated to yield three hits, comprising two autographs and one relic. Among the sought-after rare cards are the 1/1 Printing Plates and 1/1 Gold Ink Inscriptions parallels.
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The product will be released as hobby boxes for 2023 Panini Origins as the primary format.
Ready to learn more about this set? Here are some of the highlights.
The best non-auto cards are a trio of super short prints (SSP): Origins Story, Blank Slate, and Primordial. Origins Story is comic-book-inspired, blank slate has (you guessed it) a blank background, and Primordian is inspired by… Jurassic Park? With three case hits and only 16 boxes per case, your odds of a case hit aren’t too bad – nearly 20%.
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The Rookie Jumbo Autographs are consistent frontmen for this product and serve as the best early-season RPA of the top rookies.
This year’s set also includes the Dual Rookie Autographs and Triple Rookie Autographs, which feature everybody but the biggest trio of signers that all collectors are chasing.
And don’t worry, Origins brought back booklet autographs once again. Everybody’s favorite impossible-to-store-or-display cards are back with Origins of Greatness Booklet Autographs and Rookie Stars Dual Patch Autograph Booklets.
Is the 2023 Origins Football a smart idea early in the football card season? If so, how should you approach it?
Shop for 2023 Panini Origins Football boxes on eBay
Is it a good hold as a sealed product? Considering an estimated $1,000 release day price, let’s look at how that stacks up to years prior.
Here’s the value of the last few years based on recent sales (as of 11/1/2023)
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023 | $330 |
| 2022 | $270 |
| 2021 | $350 |
| 2020 | $900 |
| 2019 | $250 |
| 2018 | $500 |
So is it a good investment?
The numbers above highlight how the strength of a rookie class can dramatically swing the price of a box, but 2023 has a pretty strong rookie class from what we’re seeing thus far.
The 2020 box is worth nearly 3x of what the 2023 box is selling for now. And while I don’t think the 2023 class is as strong as the 2020 class, led by Burrow, Hurts, Herbert, Tua, Jefferson and others, I think it’s a better class than 2021, which is already reselling for $350.
BUT, again, the big red flag here is the lack of signers in Origins. When thinking about this as a long-term investment, you basically need to throw Young, Stroud and Levis out as drivers of future value. If you do that, you’re left with a significantly weaker rookie class led by Anthony Richardson, who couldn’t stay on the field more than 6 games his rookie year.
So, with that in mind, I’m passing on Origins.
If you’re looking to invest in singles, the best cards would be an RPA of your favorite signing rookie, or maybe a case hit of the non-signers. If you can buy raw and get them graded, bonus points for that.
Origins is a nice product, but nothing I really think of as a staple for long-term investing.
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With 2023 Origins Football, what should you do?
As with most 2023 Panini products, this one is significantly impacted by the lack of Stroud, Young or Levis autographs. But since this set is so autograph-driven, Origins is impacted even worse. There’s not much reason to consider it a good buy.
That said if you’re just itching to rip something early in the season and have money to burn, grab a box. This is a “hobby,” and while you can make a decent amount of profit off it, hobbies are also about having fun.
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Come back to this space for information on the 2023 Panini Origins Football checklist when it becomes available.
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