Breaking Down The 92 Rookie Cards In 2023 Topps Update [Analysis And Tiers Added]

2023 Topps Update arrives in October with a new batch of rookie cards for collectors to chase. Rookies are always a bit part of the draw of the update series. But who are the rookies in 2023? Which are worth chasing? And how does this class stack up?

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2023 Topps Update release

The release date for 2023 Topps Update is scheduled for October 11, 2023 (subject to change).

2023 Topps Update release completes the 2023 Topps Flagship Trilogy, following Topps Series 1 and Series 2.

2023 Topps Update Arrives To Close the 2023 Topps Flagship Trilogy In October

What determines which rookies are in Topps Update?

Players that made their MLB debut late in 2022 or early in 2023 have rookie cards in 2023 Topps Update. The cutoff date for a player to appear in Update isn’t publicized but is likely set by the MLBPA. The general consensus is that the date is right around the start of June.

That means that players who debut after that time frame will get rookie cards in 2024 Topps. The most obvious and notable player who falls into the “next year” category is Elly De La Cruz, who debuted on June 6th. Other players who debuted later and will get 2024 rookies include Christian Encarnacion-Strand (July 17) and Jordan Lawlar (Sept 7).

Additionally, some popular players with rookie cards in 2023 Topps Series 1, Series 2, or Chrome also have rookie cards in the Update Series. Most of these are as a “Rookie Debut” card that includes the date of the player’s MLB debut and the “RC” logo.

For example, Adley Rutschman had a rookie card in 2023 Topps Series 1 and 2023 Topps Chrome. Rutschman also has a Rookie Debut card in 2023 Topps Update, so he’ll be included on the rookie checklist.

Note that these boxes do not feature the new “Rookie Debut” patches, but they will debut in 2023 Topps Chrome Update.

This brings up the debate about what a player’s “true rookie card” is. Let’s use Fernando Tatis Jr. as an example. He had rookie cards in 2019 Topps Series 2, 2019 Topps Chrome, and 2019 Topps Update. Here are the averages of the three most recent eBay sales for each of these cards in a PSA 10:

• 2019 Topps Series 2 #410 Fernando Tatis Jr. RC: $34.50
• 2019 Topps Chrome #203 Fernando Tatis Jr. RC: $32.98
• 2019 Topps Update #US56 Fernando Tatis Jr. Rookie Debut: $16.16

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Rookie Debut Cards in Topps Update

The “Rookie Debut” version in Topps Update is clearly the least popular card despite still having the “RC” designation. Take this into consideration when deciding your investment strategy for 2023 Topps Update.

To help put these Rookie Debut cards in perspective, consider the 2023 Topps Update Rookie Debut players a full tier below where their “true” rookie cards should be. Bumping these players down a tier better reflects the decreased value of Rookie Debut cards. This is why you’ll see Adley Rutschman, Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Walker in Tier 2.

Here is the complete list of players with Rookie Debut cards in 2023 Topps Update that have their true rookie cards in previous 2023 Topps releases:

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• Tier 2:
  • Adley Rutschman (Card #US180)
  • Corbin Carroll (#US244)
  • Gunnar Henderson (#US18)
  • Jordan Walker (#US122)
• Tier 3:
  • Anthony Volpe (#US77)
  • Brett Baty (#US158)
  • Gabriel Moreno (#US161 & #US290)
  • Christopher Morel (#US163)
  • Nolan Gorman (#US212)
  • Triston Casas (#US221)
  • Michael Harris II (#US225)
  • Francisco Alvarez (#US255)
  • Ezequiel Tovar (#US283)
  • Riley Greene (#US298)
  • Josh Jung (#US308)
• Tier 4:
  • Masataka Yoshida (#US5)
  • Kodai Senga (#US20)
  • Vaughn Grissom (#US24)
  • Nelson Velázquez (#US31)
  • Oswald Peraza (#US44)
  • Nolan Jones (#US85)
  • Logan O’Hoppe (#US93)
  • Alec Burleson (#US99)
  • Brice Turang (#US101)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino (#US110)
  • Michael Stefanic (#US124)
  • Miguel Vargas (#US142)
  • Jeter Downs (#US145)
  • Garrett Mitchell (#US148)
  • Shea Langeliers (#US181)
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (#US187)
  • Oscar Colás (#US205)
  • Alex Call (#US253)
  • Oscar Gonzalez (#US275)
  • Hunter Brown (#US315)
  • JJ Bleday (#US330)

Additionally, there are 15 players that have both true rookie cards and Rookie Debut cards in 2023 Topps Update. There likely isn’t as much of a difference in value for the two cards in the same release, but for clarity the Rookie Debut cards won’t be in the table below.

There are the players you’ll find with both true rookies and Rookie Debut cards: Taj Bradley (#US3), Mason Miller (#US210), Grayson Rodriguez (#US35), Bobby Miller (#US40), Matt Mervis (#US236), Edouard Julien (#US46), Michael Busch (#US66), Zach Neto (#US329), Joey Ortiz (#US103), Tanner Bibee (#US107), Casey Schmitt (#US198), Eury Pérez (#US317), Bryce Miller (#US193), Joey Wiemer (#US316), Jared Shuster (#US309).

The tiers and analysis you’re used to seeing will include only players with true rookie cards in 2023 Topps Update. Overall, the checklist is really pitcher-heavy. Only 37 of the 82 true rookie cards are hitters. The other 45 are pitchers. There are also 10 rookie combo cards that include eight pitching duos and two pitcher/catcher combos; none are worth investors’ time.

Investors won’t be thrilled with the 2023 Topps Update checklist because there are so few rookie hitters and so many rookie pitchers. Overall, it seems like a weak crop of true rookies. There are only five players worthy of the top two tiers and the best ones are pitchers.

See below for the tiered breakdown of true rookies in 2023 Topps Update and check back soon for analysis on the top rookies to invest in!

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Rookies in 2023 Topps Update

Analyzing the rookie cards in 2023 Topps Update

Tier 1: Rookie worth ripping for in 2023 Topps Update

Eury Pérez

Miami Marlins P (Card #US139)

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According to Baseball America:

• Marlins #1 prospect in 2023
• MLB #7 prospect in 2023
• Grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 65 | Overall: 70

I know what you’re thinking: Just one player in Tier 1 and it’s a pitcher?! I get it, I never put pitchers in Tier 1. But Eury Pérez is special. I tend to overthink Marlins players because I don’t want my fandom clouding my analysis, but I watched all of Pérez’s starts this year and he’s a future ace.

Pérez debuted in mid-May, less than a month after his 20th birthday, and looked completely unphased by the moment. That’s probably because he was one of the youngest players at each stop in the minor leagues.

As a 17-year-old in 15 Low-A and 5 High-A starts in 2021, Pérez had a combined 1.96 ERA with a 35.4% strikeout rate. As the youngest pitcher at Double-A the next season, it took him a few starts to find his footing, but he was fantastic for most of the summer.

Pérez’s fastball sits at 98 mph and can get up into triple digits. He has two nasty breaking pitches, a slider and a curveball that both generate a ton of whiffs. He didn’t use the changeup much in the big leagues, but it grades out as a plus pitch.

Pérez has incredible control and command for a 6-foot-8 pitcher. The 20-year-old finished his rookie season with a 3.15 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, and a 16.8% swinging strike rate (4th best among qualified pitchers).

Perez’s allure is simple: He combines a powerful four-pitch mix with athleticism and command that ranks as exceptional for anyone but jumps off the page for someone of his size… Perez has the ceiling of a true ace.

He’s the clear-cut best prospect in Miami’s system and a candidate for the sport’s best pitching prospect.

Baseball America

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Tier 2: Rookies I’m cautiously optimistic about in 2023 Topps Update

Grayson Rodriguez

Baltimore Orioles P (#US50)

According to Baseball America:

• Orioles #2 prospect in 2023
• MLB #6 prospect in 2023
• Grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 65 | Overall: 70

At 23 years old, Grayson Rodriguez and his overpowering fastball dominated Single-A hitters in 2019 and was invited to the Orioles’ alternate training site during the pandemic. This ensured he didn’t lose a year of development and facing more advanced hitters helped transform him from a thrower to a pitcher. His secondaries include a plus-plus slider and changeup with elite underlying numbers.

Rodriguez always had excellent control in the minor leagues but struggled to throw strikes after returning from an injury in mid-2022. When he made his MLB debut in 2023, his control issues persisted. The Orioles sent him down to Triple-A in late May and he returned in the second half looking much better. (1st half: 7.35 ERA, 10% BB%; 2nd half: 2.58 ERA, 6.9% BB%).

Why, Nicole, did you put Pérez in T1 and Rodriguez in T2 despite similar grades? I like Grayson Rodriguez a lot but I’m only putting one pitcher in Tier 1. I’m not sure he’s a sure-fire ace, but I think Eury Pérez is.

Rodriguez has top-of-the-rotation potential and a mid-rotation floor based on his stuff, pitch mix and mentality.

Baseball America

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Zach Neto

Los Angeles Angels SS (#US98)

According to Baseball America:

• Angels #2 prospect in 2023
• MLB #53 prospect in 2023
• Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Speed: 55 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60 | Overall: 55

Zach Neto is a 2022 first-round pick who put up humongous numbers during his junior season at Campbell (.407/.514/.769, 15 HR, 19 SB). After being drafted, Neto played 37 games between High- and Double-A where he played as advertised. After 11 games in the minor leagues to start 2023, the Angels called up in mid-April.

He got off to a solid start and found his groove in June, going 11-for-31 before suffering an oblique injury. It was unfortunate not only in timing but seemed to hamper his performance when he returned. I’m not putting too much stock in his second-half numbers for that reason.

Neto’s power is just average, but all of his other tools are above average or better. He has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than most prospects, making him the least risky investment in Tier 2. But you also know what you’re going to get: a shortstop with high average and moderate power.

Neto obviously doesn’t have the flashy tools some other shortstops do (think: Elly De La Cruz or Oneil Cruz), but he’s a safer bet to be an above-average hitter while at a premium position.

Neto has a chance to be the Angels’ long-term solution at shortstop and has the bat to be an above-average regular even if he moves positions.

Baseball America

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Bobby Miller

Los Angeles Dodgers P (#US188)

According to Baseball America:

• Dodgers #2 prospect in 2023
• MLB #20 prospect in 2023
• Grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 65

Bobby Miller’s four-seam fastball and sinker were his two best pitches during his rookie season. He also has a big, looping curveball that was his best put-away pitch. Scouts at Baseball America love Miller’s slider, but it wasn’t an effective pitch for him at the big league level.

His delivery is rather violent which can lead to control issues, but he’s had no problem throwing strikes so far. Miller’s underlying numbers back up the strong season he’s had with the Dodgers in 2023, but I don’t think he’s as lethal as Pérez and thus not my favorite pitching option in 2023 Topps Update.

Miller is an intimidating physical presence at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds and has the stuff to match. His high-octane fastball explodes out of his hand at 97-99 mph and routinely touches 100-101… He is still learning how to properly sequence his pitches and can be too intense at times…

Miller has the stuff, physicality and control to be a frontline starter similar to Brandon Woodruff if he can polish his mental approach.

Baseball America

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Joey Wiemer

Milwaukee Brewers OF (#US245)

According to Baseball America:

• Brewers #3 prospect in 2023
• Grades: Hit: 30 | Power: 70 | Speed: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 80 | Overall: 55

Joey Wiemer is so exciting because he has the impressive power/speed combination that investors dream about. Then you see the 30-grade hit tool and have to slam on the breaks. He wasn’t great during his rookie year — .204/.283/.362 with a 28.3% strikeout rate — and the underlying numbers don’t suggest he was just a victim of bad luck. But with the tools he has, you can’t give up on him just yet.

Wiemer’s production in the minor leagues was obvious. At Single-A in 2021, he slashed a combined .296/.403/.556 with 27 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and kept his strikeout rate to 22.2%. Wiemer’s production took a hit and the strikeout rate increased against better pitching in 2022, but he still managed to hit 21 home runs and steal 31 bases.

The upside is huge, but Wiemer’s offensive profile is boom or bust. If he can’t adjust, it’ll be a question of how much swing and miss the Brewers can tolerate if he’s hitting for power. There’s a ton of risk here.

There’s still a wide range of outcomes for Wiemer, but after Jackson Chourio, he has arguably the highest upside in the Brewers’ farm system.

Baseball America

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Tier 3: Rookies with a higher risk than the potential investment reward in 2023 Topps Update

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Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks P (#US6): With a plus fastball and slider, Pfaadt gets a ton of strikeouts. He looks like a mid-rotation starter.

Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics P (#US15): Miller has an upper-90s fastball and mid-80s slider but his lack of a third pitch signals he might wind up in the bullpen.

Dominic Fletcher, Arizona Diamondbacks OF (#US32): Despite not hitting the ball extremely hard, Fletcher has good plate discipline and makes the most of his line drive approach. There’s just better investment options on the D-Backs.

Matt Mervis, Chicago Cubs 1B (#US42): Mervis is a bat-only prospect with big power — 67 home runs in 310 minor league games — that’s the extent of his game.

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays P (#US55): A solid mid-rotation starter will likely be Bradley’s future role which is a great thing for the Rays but not for investors.

Miguel Amaya, Chicago Cubs C (#US60): Amaya was one of the Cubs’ big international free-agent signings in 2015. The young catcher hit well but has missed a lot of time with injuries, undergoing Tommy John surgery and dealing with a fracture in his foot.

Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers P (#US70): Stone is another future mid-rotation starter.

Joey Ortiz, Baltimore Orioles IF (#US126): Ortiz generates elite exit velocities, has good plate discipline, and can play multiple positions. His bat will dictate whether he’s a utility or everyday player. There are just so many young stars in Baltimore that it’s hard to get excited about Ortiz.

Casey Schmitt, San Francisco Giants IF (#US133): Schmitt stood out in 2022 and earned his MLB debut in 2023 but he couldn’t quite put it all together in the big leagues. He probably has the most upside in the third tier but I’m still hesitant to bump him up a tier.

Cole Ragans, Texas Rangers P (#US156): Ragans flourished after being traded to the Royals, but not enough to get me excited.

J.P. France, Houston Astros P (#US159): France was my go-to waiver wire pickup during the fantasy baseball season, but that’s the most value you can expect from him.

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians P (#US168): Bibee was really good with the Guardians this season and Cleveland is fantastic at developing pitchers. He’s one of the most attractive pitching options in the third tier but there are better options above.

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners P (#US178): Miller has an explosive fastball and good slider but currently lacks a viable third pitch.

Ben Joyce, Los Angeles Angels P (#US195): 105.5 mph is 80-grade worthy, but Joyce’s future appears to be in the bullpen.

Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds 2B/SS (#US199): Baseball America says “He’s unlikely to be a regular All-Star, but he should be a solid big leaguer.”

Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Guardians SS/3B (#US214): Rocchio is a switch-hitting middle infielder with a surprising amount of pop, but not enough to get excited about.

Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins 2B (#US222): Julien looks like a platoon bat for now, playing almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers this season.

Michael Busch, Los Angeles Dodgers 3B (#US256): With plus power, good plate discipline, and the ability to play multiple positions, Busch has earned a Max Muncy comparison. I’ll let investors decide what to do with that.

Xavier Edwards, Miami Marlins 2B (#US296): Edwards was one of the Rays’ top prospects before being traded for the Marlins a year ago. He’s an average hitter with plus speed but no power. I think he can be a viable big leaguer but not a real investment option.

Tier 4: Rookies with little to no investment value in 2023 Topps Update

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Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants C (#US8)

Bligh Madris, Houston Astros 1B/OF (#US9)

Dérmis Garcia, Oakland Athletics 1B (#US11)

Jake Alu, Washington Nationals 2B/OF (#US25)

Drew Maggi, Pittsburgh Pirates 3B (#US26)

Garrett Hill, Detroit Tigers P (#US29)

Brewer Hicklen, Kansas City Royals OF (#US37)

Matthew Batten, San Diego Padres IF (#US38)

Tim Herrin/Michael Kelly, Cleveland Guardians P/P (#US45)

Hogan Harris/Chad Smith, Oakland Athletics P/P (#US49)

Dylan Dodd, Atlanta Braves P (#US51)

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers P (#US53)

Brent Headrick, Minnesota Twins P (#US54)

Randy Vásquez, New York Yankees P (#US56)

Ryan Walker, San Francisco Giants P (#US58)

Carlos Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks P (#US67)

Andruw Monasterio, Milwaukee Brewers 2B/3B (#US74)

Ryan Noda, Oakland Athletics 1B (#US75)

Colin Holderman/Yerry De Los Santos, Pittsburgh Pirates P/P (#US109)

Thaddeus Ward, Washington Nationals P (#US111)

Juan Then, Seattle Mariners P (#US112)

Freddy Fermin, Kansas City Royals C (#US114)

Mason Englert, Detroit Tigers P (#US116)

Grant Anderson, Texas Rangers P (#US141)

Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals 3B (#US144)

Levi Stoudt, Cincinnati Reds P (#US149)

Jeff Lindgren/Bryan Hoeing, Miami Marlins P/P (#US153)

Caleb Hamilton, Boston Red Sox C (#US160)

Jake Bird, Colorado Rockies P (#US162)

Brett Wisely, San Francisco Giants 2B/OF (#US174)

Jose Caballero, Seattle Mariners 2B/SS (#US183)

Jose Hernandez, Pittsburgh Pirates P (#US185)

Narciso Crook, Boston Red Sox OF (#US186)

Garrett Acton, Oakland Athletics P (#US192)

Zack Weiss, Los Angeles Angels P (#US196)

Blake Sabol, San Francisco Giants C/OF (#US201)

Braden Shewmake, Atlanta Braves SS (#US206)

Sean Bouchard, Colorado Rockies OF (#US216)

Jason Delay, Pittsburgh Pirates C (#US220)

Cody Bolton, Pittsburgh Pirates P (#US223)

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals P (#US224)

Corey Julks, Houston Astros OF (#US228)

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians P (#US233)

Sam Bachman, Los Angeles Angels P (#US238)

Gus Varland, Milwaukee Brewers P (#US241)

Blake Perkins, Milwaukee Brewers OF (#US242)

Jose Cuas, Kansas City Royals P (#US246)

Kevin Kelly, Tampa Bay Rays P (#US260)

Cody Sedlock/Michael Papierski, Detroit Tigers P/C (#US262)

Jared Koenig/Anderson Espinoza, San Diego Padres P/P (#US265)

Andrew Nardi, Miami Marlins P (#US266)

Peyton Battenfield, Cleveland Guardians P (#US267)

Casey Legumina, Cincinnati Reds P (#US277)

Jhony Brito, New York Yankees P (#US279)

Braden Bristo, Detroit Tigers P (#US282)

Brandon Williamson, Cincinnati Reds P (#US286)

Jason Alexander/Peter Strzelecki, Milwaukee Brewers P/P (#US287)

Nick Duron/Tom Cosgrove, San Diego Padres P/P (#US288)

Wynton Bernard, Toronto Blue Jays OF (#US293)

Hobie Harris, Washington Nationals P (#US294)

Elier Hernández, Texas Rangers OF (#US304)

Enmanuel Valdez, Boston Red Sox 2B (#US310)

Luis Medina, Oakland Athletics P (#US311)

Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies OF (#US314)

César Salazar/Matt Gage, Houston Astros C/P (#US318)

George Soriano, Miami Marlins P (#US320)

Logan Gillaspie/Nick Vespi, Baltimore Orioles P/P (#US322)

Jared Shuster, Atlanta Braves P (#US324)

The final word (for now) on the best rookies in 2023 Topps Update

The rookie list in 2023 Topps Update perhaps isn’t as flashy as the earlier 2023 Topps series. But it is not without promise. There’s a lot to like in the 2023 Topps Update, and the rookie list is part of the fun.

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Other Cardlines 2023 Topps flagship coverage

• 2023 Topps Update Arrives To Close the 2023 Topps Flagship Trilogy In October
• 2023 Topps Series 1 Baseball: The Beginning Of A New Baseball Card Season Is Upon Us
• An In-Depth Look Into 2023 Topps Series 1 Baseball Odds & Print Runs And Why Jumbo Boxes Are King
• 2023 Topps Series 1 Rookies: What Topps Rookie Cards Are In This Series? [Tiers Updated]
• 2023 Topps Golden Mirror SSPs Ditch the Numeric Code For Clearer Way To Identify SSPs
• 2023 Topps Series 2 Baseball: The Next Chapter of the 2023 Flagship Trilogy Drops
• The Best 2023 Topps Series 2 Rookies To Invest In
• Everything You Need To Know About The Various 2023 Topps Baseball Factory Set Offerings

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