Investing In 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Candidates

The 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was revealed in November 2021. You may be wondering if investing in 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame candidates is a good idea. We have the full guide.

Profiles of 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Inductees:

• Gil Hodges
• Jim Kaat
• Tony Oliva
• Buck O’Neil
• David Ortiz

Hall of Fame Elections in a Nutshell

Election to the Baseball Hall of Fame is the pinnacle of the sport. The place where the very best of the best get honored. Discussing who deserves to get in, who will get in, and what it will do for the value of their cards goes a long way towards filling the cold, baseball-less months.

Today, we’ll take a look at the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. Our dive will examine who is likely to be elected, their key rookie cards, and what players on the ballot might be the best investments.

 The BBWAA Ballot

A player becomes eligible for election into the Hall of Fame five years after their retirement. For example, suppose a player had a 10-year career and was selected by the committee. In that case, they appear on the ballot to be voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). A player appears on the ballot until elected by appearing on 75% of ballots. If they fail to be elected, players still can make it in future years.

However, they drop off the ballot in two instances. First, the BBWAA removes a player after appearing on less than 5% of the ballots in a given year. Others may be dropped after appearing on the ballot for 10 years straight unsuccessfully.

Seventeen players will return to the ballot from last year’s list. They will be joined by a number of first-year eligible players who retired 5 years ago (2016). The full ballot with the new candidates will be announced on November 22^nd.

Results of the voting will be announced on January 25^th, with the induction ceremony in Cooperstown, NY, in July.

Induction into the Hall is the pinnacle of a successful career (look for HOF plaques on eBay)

How Being Elected to the Hall of Fame Effects Card Values

In the short term, players tend to see a bump in value around the announcement of their election. There can be a second bump on their inauguration weekend.

Why? When a player makes news, it increases demand. Demand leads to increased sales volume, leading to higher prices. An example of the “in the news” effect is the recent retirement of Buster Posey. Immediately following the announcement, he saw a jump in the value of his rookie card. Hall of Fame election has a similar effect.

Long-term, the initial bumps will dissipate. However, being a member of the Hall of Fame tends to provide a long-term baseline value. After all, someone starts a collection of Hall of Fame rookie cards every day. Therefore, demand is virtually guaranteed.

One variable in the size of the jump in value that comes with the election is how expected the player was to make the Hall of Fame. For a no-doubt Hall of Fame, like Derek Jeter, the bump might be on the lower side. Expect 10-20% or so.

If the player is a surprise selection, the increase can be significantly higher. Think Lee Smith, Harold Baines, or Ted Simmons. Smith, for example, saw his rookie cards selling for as much as ten times what they had only weeks before. These surprise selections often happen with the “era committee” votes (formerly known as the veteran’s committee). However, they can occur in the BBWAA vote from time to time. Even a significant jump in the voting, shy of the threshold for enshrinement, can give a player a considerable boost.

Ted Simmons cards got a nice boost when he was elected to the HOF (look for his rookie cards on eBay)

Investing In 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Candidates: The Ballot

Let’s take a quick look at the players on the ballot. We will examine their 2021 vote percentage, key rookie card, PSA pops, and recent sale prices.

Returning Candidates

Will Barry Bonds make it despite the dark cloud above his career? (look for his rookie cards on eBay)

Likely First-Time Candidates

Is Mark Texeira Hall-of-Fame worthy? (look for his autos on eBay)

Investing In 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Candidates: Who Gets In

Of the first-year eligible players, the only one with a chance to get elected this year is David Ortiz. Some seem to question if he’ll get in the first ballot, but I think he clears the 75% mark and takes his rightful place in Cooperstown. He may not pass 75% by a lot, but I think he gets in.

I expect this is the year that Schilling gets over the hump and gets over 75% of the votes, and finally gets inducted.

I don’t expect any players who have a PED cloud hanging over their candidacy to get elected. Alex Rodriguez joins the group in his debut year on the ballot.

I don’t think Scott Rolen will entirely get elected. Nonetheless, I expect a bump, perhaps to 65-70%. This increase will set him up nicely for enshrinement in an upcoming election.

I expect vote increases for Billy Wagner and Todd Helton as well, although probably not huge increases. I expect both to be elected before their 10 years on the ballot are over.

The vote totals of Omar Vizquel and Andrew Jones are likely to stagnate, thanks to the abuse clouds that hang over them both.

I fear that the ballot could lose two players who may eventually end up in Cooperstown to the 5% rule in Bobby Abreu and Tim Hudson.

Names Of Interest

I don’t expect any of the other first-year eligible players to come close to election, and most will fall off the ballot after this vote. However, a few interesting names on the ballot likely won’t get much attention and likely not high vote totals. Players like Jimmy Rollins, Joe Nathan, and Jonathan Papelbon. Some might fall off the ballot entirely, but keep an eye on them.

Questionable facial hair decisions aside, this could be Curt Schilling’s year (look for his RC’s on eBay)

Investing in the Hall of Fame Ballot

Schilling and Ortiz, two players likely to be inducted, were Red Sox teammates on the 2004 and 2007 World Champs. Collecting their cards should pay dividends if you buy now.

Oritz’s rookie cards are already pretty expensive. However, enough people doubt he’ll be elected, especially in his first year, that they’ll see a bump.

Meanwhile, Schilling’s only actual rookie card is from a vastly overproduced set. Therefore, while I expect a bump, it may not be large. If you want something higher dollar on Schilling, check out his 1986 ProCards Elmira Pioneers card. That is if you can find it. It’s only a PSA pop of 33, with only 4 gem mints.

Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner are two more players who may see a bump. Indeed, it may occur even if they don’t get elected. After all, the expected increase in card value will solidify their status as legitimate candidates.

If you’re looking to play the long game, a few players are to consider. For example, Hudson and Abreu won’t break the bank. However, they may someday be “surprise” Hall of Fame selections that see big jumps in value.

Minor League cards are a great way to invest in future Hall-of-Famers (look for Jeter minor league cards on eBay)

Minor League Options for Major League Hall of Famers

Many of the players appearing on the ballot now and appear on minor league cards in the coming years. We explored minor league cards in our article Are Minor League Cards Worth Anything?

My take? Minor league cards are often in lower demand than a player’s “true” rookie card but often pre-date that rookie card and have much lower print runs. Also, to me, they are unique collectibles and a lot of fun!

Especially for some of these Hall of Fame candidates with “junk wax” rookie cards, minor league cards are an excellent alternative (or additional) option to collect.

The Bottomline On Investing In 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Candidates 

Election to the Hall of Fame elevates great players to a new level and typically does good things for the value of their cards. The annual Hall of Fame election is a great chance to add value to your collection, turn a profit selling, and further enjoy the great game and hobby we all love.