The current NFL rookie class is perfect. There are so many players making an impact on the NFL right now in their first year.
Far more than usual. That has sent the prices of rookie cards soaring. The excitement around Jayden Daniels has been particularly palpable. But he is in no way the only one. That has led to a price surge around the 2024 Panini Prizm Football release.
The cards that have benefited the most from this rise are, without a doubt, the Panini Black Finite 1/1 cards. We have seen a bounty bidding war around these cards.
Alexis Ohanian is best known as the co-founder and former executive chairman of the social media site Reddit. He is also quite well known for being married to one Serena Williams. Either of those will make you noteworthy.
But he is involved in our story because the guy put out a $200,000 bounty on the $200k Black Finite 1/1 Jayden Daniels card.
In an Instagram video, he said, “My name is Alexis Ohanian, and I have a $200,000 proposition for you. You see, I’ve been a diehard Commanders fan since I was a little kid, and I am so excited this year with our franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels just taking care of business. This is the release of the 2024 Panini Prizm Football cards, and I want to ensure I get my hands on the best Jayden Daniels card. So this is a $200,000 bounty. Congratulations if you get the Jayden Daniels True Black Prizm Finite one-on-one. Let me know. Send me a DM. We’ll organize the pickup and the transfer. I am so excited to get my hands on this card. I hope you will do me a solid. We will get this thing graded. I’ll get it vaulted. It’s not going anywhere. It’s going to be in my family collection forever. I’m very excited about this team. Very excited about Jayden. And I hope you will help me out here and I can delight you with the cool 200 grand. Thanks!”
This is not the first time Ohanian has dealt with sports cards. In 2021, he co-founded ALT with Leore Avidar. It is an app for buying and selling cards that have shown some promise, though it never became quite as successful as some had predicted.
The 41-year-old is, understandably, a big fan of his wife, Serena Williams, and has amassed an impressive collection of her cards. Indeed, his collection of her cards is valued at $2,500,000.
In addition, Ohanian made headlines just a few days ago when he bought a card featuring the boxer Alexis Arguello, whom he was named after.
He Tweeted: “Okay, I *had* to get this one. This is an original 1991 AW sports boxing card, licensed by the Boxing Hall of Fame, rated a perfect 10, depicting none other than my namesake, Nicaraguan boxer Alexis Arguello. Alexis Arguello is widely recognized as one of the best boxers of all time. He was a 3x world champion, holding titles in featherweight, super featherweight, and lightweight divisions.”
But that did not stay the highest bounty on the Jayden Daniels card for long. Since then, Patrick Ryan has upped the ante with a $250,000 bounty on the card. If you want a look at the fantastic collection that Patrick has amassed over the years, check out this video from the Sports Card Investor.
The highlight is his curated list of (what Patrick believes) are the one hundred most iconic cards of all time. He has pretty good taste and fantastic specimens of every single one of them.
The guy who hit the card is very well known. It is one Dr Moist Muffins, usually referred to simply as Moisty. Though he is a significant player, he hit the card with a random $36 team break spot. Nothing fancy. Why do the big whales have all the luck in life?
The card was pulled during a WeTheHobby stream on Fanatics Live. The chat was buzzing big, with about 200 people on when this happened.
You can see the film of that card being pulled here. The folks at WeTheHobby correctly referred to the magnificent Jayden Daniels 2024 Prizm #347 Black Finite 1/1 card as a “product hit.”
Dr Moist Muffins seemed quite pleased with his significant hit and posted “Oh heyy” followed by “pants off!!!”
Another breaker was involved in this story. Roth Cards has been making a great effort to buy any Jayden Daniels cards they can. You can see on their Instagram profile that this has been taking up a lot of their effort and attention.
Within a few minutes of the card getting hit, he was in the chat trying to buy the card from Dr Moist Muffins. But of course, with such a big card in his hands, Moisty was not ready to part with his item just yet.
Alexis Ohanian didn’t want anyone to forget that he was still in the hunt, so he posted on X, “Yes! Take the bounty.”
At one point, people were saying (yes, I was one of those) that NFTs were the hobby’s future. But they sell for a lot less than the physical cards. Since then, the value of NFTs in sports and elsewhere has dropped.
Nonetheless, the Jayden Daniels Black Finite 1/1 NFT has sold for a nice sum. On January 2nd, it sold for a handsome $20,000 yesterday. Notable collector Luca Spinelli is the individual who bought the NFT at the Panini NFT Store.
It was a reminder that although NFTs have not taken off as expected, they remain a force in the hobby. Their day may come if people are willing to pay $20,000 for them.
Jayden Daniels is about to break the bank seriously. But even though his cards are somewhat outlier, we have also seen some other massive sales. Here are a few examples:
Malik Willis 2022 Panini Prizm #303 Black Finite Prizm Rookie Card RC 1/1 (PSA 10) | $14,999 |
2024 Panini Black Finite Prizm #314 Brian Thomas Jr. Jaguars RC Rookie 1/1 (Raw) | $14,544 |
2024 Panini Prizm Brock Bowers Black Finite 1/1 (Raw) | $11,999 |
2023 Panini Prizm Dalton Kincaid Black Finite 1/1 RC Auto (Raw) | $10,999 |
2019 Panini Prizm #346 Deebo Samuel Black Finite 1/1- BGS 9 – RC | $9,600 |
The Brock Bowers sale is pretty impressive for a tight end. We don’t expect that position to be doing these sorts of numbers.
Similarly, Brian Thomas Jr. is doing fantastic numbers for a wide receiver. Considering their credentials and comparing them to retired legends with better careers, their cards seem ridiculously overpriced.
Of course, it isn’t just the Panini Black Finite 1/1 cards selling for serious money. The other low-population cards of the current rookie class are also doing incredibly well. For example, the gold vinyl cards.
The Panini Black Finite 1/1 cards were first announced in 2012 as Panini’s answer to the Topps Superfractor. At first, many people saw them as pale imitations of the Superfractor, down to the similar diamond overlay.
But as Panini took possession of the market, they gained much popularity. Lately, despite the return of the Superfractor to football and basketball (though in limited capacity), the prices for the Panini Black Finite 1/1 cards have gone up.
The buzz surrounding the Jayden Daniels 2024 Prizm #347 Black Finite 1/1 card has only increased.
Hype is the norm in our hobby. We have seen so many overhyped quarterbacks that it is essential and legitimate to ask if Jayden Daniels is another one of those names that will be forgotten in a year or two. If that is the case, the value of the cards will evaporate with his reputation.
There is no question that he is having a phenomenal first year. He seems almost superhuman, passing out of the pocket, using his agility and speed to his best effect, and able to use his famous accuracy with devastating aplomb in those situations.
However, many other players who did the same have been unable to replicate it. You don’t have to look only at players who burned out like RG3.
Take a look at Baker Mayfield, for example. Or even players with strong careers like Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan, who have valuable cards but not on the level of Jayden Daniels, who is now with less accomplishment.
One argument against investing in Daniels is seeing how much the other rookies from his cohort are fetching on the market.
There appears to be a lot of artificial hype and excitement around young players, much of it designed to get clicks, views, and attention rather than related to their career viability.
Another argument is the injury issue. Every NFL player is a high-risk injury proposition. But Daniels is a riskier bet than most.
Bleacher Report noted in his scouting report that he is “Skinny frame with a reckless abandon as a ball-carrier. Opens himself up to future injury.”
Those investing tons of money in Jayden Daniels cards need to be aware of that. His chances of burning out are significant; even if he does not, a good career is more likely than a legendary one.
Realistically, the only way to answer this question is with a yes. Most players who have excellent careers do not get that kind of value for their cards, even for the 1/1s.
Meanwhile, most first-year NFL sensations do not go on to have great careers. So many things can go wrong in that world, most notably injuries. Just recently, the entire hobby went wild over CJ Stroud and, before that, Bryce Young.
We also remember another Commander’s QB, the most significant player in the game in 2013. Those names are a good reminder that things don’t always go according to plan.
Even if things turn out relatively well for Daniels, his values will likely drop. There aren’t too many Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady-style players who maintain their value properly.
Especially recently, we have seen football cards crash and quarterback cards tank. It isn’t easy to see a trajectory where Jayden Daniels’s cards don’t go down, barring him from becoming one of the greatest quarterbacks ever.
There is always a chance that the market has changed irrevocably and that cards for non-quarterback players or more mediocre players will be worth these large amounts.
But that seems unlikely. When the hype fades, and it almost always does, the value of cards decreases drastically. Barring an incredible career, they usually do not go back up again. That is just how this works.
Some collectors are banking on a certain amount of nostalgia among collectors for Panini cards. This may be the last batch of potential superstars from licensed Panini products.
Therefore, they hope that huge cards, such as the Black Finite 1/1, will hold a premium. That may be the case. However, it is unlikely that the nostalgia will justify the sums that people are paying.
Another problem is that 2024 Panini Prizm Football has too many parallels, which may ultimately lower the product’s value. As we discussed recently, this release has no less than 63 parallels. That is less likely to reduce the value of 1/1s than other numbered cards.
But there is cause for concern nonetheless. Parallels may end up being worth less in the future with the numbers increasing, and 2024 Panini Prizm Football may also have some problems with its reputation.
The enthusiasm around the most promising rookies has always been part of the hobby. It is also very healthy for the business, bringing in new fans and getting people excited about new products.
The problem is that all the other cards are sagging in value while the newest rookies are fetching insanely unrealistic prices. That is because of the problem many of us have noticed: too many speculators in the hobby and not enough collectors.
That means once the enthusiasm is gone, too few people want to own the cards.
Collectors are the folks who keep this hobby alive. That is true in this case as well. Ohanian wants the Jayden Daniels Black Finite 1/1 Card because he is a lifetime Commanders fan.
But too many people will run on to the next thing. Ohanian could pick this card up for a fraction of the price in a few years. That is a lesson worth remembering.
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