Are Wemby Cards Crashing?

There is no question that Victor Wembanyama is the most popular current NBA player in the hobby. He has more cards graded than any other athlete, and it is not even close.

But in recent weeks, the prices of his cards have tanked, raising many questions. Is this merely reflecting the market right now? Is it because there has been so much hype, and people are sick of it?

Or is there something specific about Wemby that is throwing people off? There is a lot to unpack here, so read on as we ask why Wemby cards are down.

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An introduction to Wemby basketball cards

If you are reading this, you probably don’t need an introduction to Wemby. You know that he is the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year and, before that, the most anticipated NBA rookie since LeBron James.

For months, there was a dearth of Wemby cards on the market. Panini cards, which held his official rookie cards, needed to catch up. So there was a premium on the few cards with his name. Most notably, the Bowman University release of 2022 and a few Topps Now cards capitalized on the phenomenon.

But as expected, that shortage of actionable cards lasted only a short time. Panini has him, as you would expect in all of their releases, from Prizm to Hoops and so on.

But the athlete threw a monkey wrench in Panini’s plans by signing a contract worth a reported 5 million smackeroos (I believe that is the technical term) with Fanatics for exclusive autographs. That meant that Panini could pump out parallels of Wemby to their heart’s content. However, they could not make autos.

Instead, Fanatics stepped into the breach and released products, including Wemby’s auto cards. Therefore, the renewed Topps Chrome release was graced with his signature. But things took a turn when Topps decided to center an entire product on the Spurs star.

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The release of 2023-24 Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama

There is a long history of products centering on one player. They usually do not do very well. But it was fairly predictable that Topps would use its exclusive license to make one for Wemby. It was surprising how much marketing muscle they put into 2023-24 Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama.

Fanatics has figured out that if you hype something enough, you can overcome any obstacle, like having only one athlete in an unlicensed product. And you can’t accuse the company of not being ambitious. These boxes are priced at well over $10,000. At one point, they were selling for close to $12,000.

However, this product has had severe trouble since its release on October 9, 2024. First, people noticed that the design needed to be more original.

Here is what I wrote about that then: ‘One Instagram user, spintronic, saw some notable similarities between the Topps Mercury cards and some previous releases. Perhaps that is the reason the designs for this release are so attractive.

They were taken from the last great designs. He highlighted Panini Preferred, a long-discontinued Panini product with some beautiful cards. But also more recent releases. However, the most embarrassing thing is the origin of the Mercury logo. It looks like the original Walkman logo from the 1980s, just upside down.”

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It gets worse

But the problems for this release continued. Footage surfaced of a company using CT scans to determine the contents of a 2023-24 Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama box.

The YouTube channel Sports Card Madness warned that these boxes, in particular, were being regularly scanned to find the best cards. Meanwhile, the worst ones were being placed for resale on eBay—for a reasonable $10,000 a pop.

How much does it cost to scan one of these? We are so glad you asked. Industrial Inspection + Consulting LLC has conveniently advertised the price.

• Topps Mercury Case – 8x Cards – $625
• Topps Mercury Case – 2nd Layer + Top Left Horizontal – $300

There were predictions that this product would fail from the very start. One Blowout Forums user wrote, “Damn, Topps is milking it so hard already. This will be the worst ROI product in sports card history.” That kind of thing is usually hyperbole. But with the CT Scan fiasco and the extremely high price, he may be right.

Flooding the market with Wemby cards

Even before the release of 2023-24 Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama, there were fears that too many rookie cards were surfacing. In May, a post on Reddit assessed the situation:

“Right now, the count of Wemby rookies (in a Spurs uniform) is 150. So that doesn’t include Draft products or Topps. I’m also not including parallels in this count. Optic, Contenders, Mosaic, Obsidian, and Noir are still announced. We are also likely seeing Flawless, National Treasures, Flux, and Chronicles.

There’s a good chance there’ll be over 300 rookie cards without factoring in parallels. Keep this in mind when buying/hunting Wemby cards. Even if he’s an all-timer, the sheer volume of rookie cards means most of these are destined for the dollar bin.”

Since then, many of those products and many unlicensed Topps products have come out, flooding the zone. Indeed, I tackled this issue in September and voiced my concern about the matter.

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The crash in Wemby card values

Early in 2024, the Wemby rookie cards were going way up, but people voiced concerns about the plummeting card values by mid-year. On the Hubux YouTube channel, they crunched the numbers in early June, and they weren’t pretty.

Things have remained the same since. Indeed, during the offseason, they only got worse. Let’s take a look at how some of the most essential Wemby cards have fared in recent months.

Holy guacamole. I had heard that Wemby cards were down. But this is a freaking bloodbath. I randomly picked these cards from the ones with enough data to compare.

As you can see, only one card has a positive gain. But that is the card on this list with the most minor data, so it will most likely be a fluke. There is no question. Wemby cards are way down.

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Comparing Wemby cards to other players

Let’s compare that to some other players:

The data is obvious. Basketball cards are down in general, but Wemby’s are doing worse. But what is far more tricky is figuring out why.

Which Wemby Cards?

Generally speaking, figuring out which rookie cards to invest in is easy. For basketball, that usually means Prizm or maybe some high-end RPAs. But as we have seen, the situation with Wemby cards is bizarre. Generally speaking, non-NBA cards and non-licensed cards need higher value.

But as we have seen, the Wemby card market is anything but straightforward. Panini has the traditionally valuable brands with his rookie cards but without autos. Meanwhile, Topps has autos without licensed cards. Both kind of suck, honestly. The war between the card companies is not benefitting collectors.

Therefore, it is worth seeing which cards are doing better. So we will pay attention to that in our price overview. But as a word of warning, we don’t yet know what will go down as his critical cards in the long run. There is a chance that one type of card will fall on its face at some point.

The data right now is very partial, but I see now that the autos are holding up better than the Panini cards. That is even though the Topps cards are unlicensed. So, there is a verdict from the market, but I am not convinced that it will remain this way.

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Why are Wemby cards down

We know Wemby cards are down. However, that isn’t super helpful. There are so many possible reasons for this that it’s hard to focus on one.

You can only go down from the top

The numbers are very illuminating. However, there is something very predictable about the decline in the value of the cards. One of the problems with our current hobby (there are so many that I should write a freaking book) is how overpriced the most coveted rookies are at their moment of most extraordinary hype.

They sometimes reach the point where it would only be possible for the player’s career achievements to make the card worthwhile in the long term. They are already priced as if they were the reincarnation of Michael Jordan.

That means the value will likely decrease even if they get there. In January, a Blowout Forums user commented, “You’re starting at such a ridiculous level already for Wemby; he’s already priced as if he’s the GOAT.” He also noted that the prices were likely to drop since “money is only coming out of the market now and for the foreseeable future.” Then, adding to the dramatic increase in supply over 2024, the picture becomes quite clear.

Looked at from a broader macro perspective like this, it would be surprising if Wemby’s card prices DIDN’T go down. It is just the forces of gravity doing their thing.

The general state of the basketball card market

We can’t get a complete picture of what is going on with Wemby cards without getting a full look at the state of basketball card prices. The situation with basketball cards is, not to put too fine a point on it, quite dire.

I wrote an overview of the problem recently and stated, “What makes basketball cards unique is the amount of involvement of celebrities and influencers. It vastly outweighs how often they get involved in other sports. That has turned many people off and lost many of us money. That isn’t very pleasant, and the people involved should be held accountable. However, there is also good news. The market adjusts. People are catching on to cheap pump-and-dump tactics and realizing the value of cards and basketball wax.”

There is also another factor that has been depressing sports card values recently. The commodification of cards, changing them from items we collect to items in which we invest.

This has led to people trying to get rid of their cards as quickly as possible. Meanwhile, the number of people who want to keep and enjoy them has decreased significantly. That means that cards are like a bubble. There is more supply than people interested in keeping them. When that happens, according to the most fundamental laws of economics, prices decrease.

Wemby has been very much affected by this issue. No one has been hyped more than this guy. And even though he has largely lived up to it, reality, as always, proves more mundane than fantasy. Watching him play well but lose endlessly for the Spurs has yet to be as exciting for collectors as you might think.

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The final word on why Wemby cards are down

Basketball cards are down across the board. That is one of the main things bringing down Wemby cards. But his numbers are down further than other players.

The main reason is that he has been priced as an all-time great. He ain’t one yet. Just an excellent rookie with a great career ahead of him. That means that the hype was more significant than the reality.

Also, as a player in a small market with a lot to prove and many (SO MANY) cards, there aren’t enough people wanting to keep his cards, and too many people are trying to get rid of them.

Now for the most critical question: Is it time to buy if you believe in Wemby? This is a tough one. I would say no. The spotlight will be off him as the Spurs struggle, and no one is talking about him as the Rookie of the Year.

His prices will probably be even lower in a year or two. The hype is dying, and now we are left with reality. Wemby’s reality is still sensational, but he was never going to match those dreams.

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